362 Arbella Loop · The Villages, FL 32162

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 346 Days on market

Built 2009 5,520 sqft lot Est $307k · 10% over $199/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BOND PAID!!!!BEING SOLD TURNKEY Welcome Home to this beautiful Cottage style home. Driving up to this home you will see the mature landscaping with lights added for nighttime ambiance. The garage has a newer electric screen that allows the breeze to blow through the garage. The home has a newer roof installed in 2021 and a newer Hot water heater installed in 2018. As you walk through the front door you will be amazed on how light and bright this home is. The open floor plan allows you to be anywhere in the house and be part of the conversation. The Florida room is great for entertaining with plenty of sunshine and a mini split A/C unit that keeps everything cool on those hot days. All the f

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Mini split a/c unit
• Newer roof

Tags

• ELECTRIC SCREEN GARAGE
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• MINI SPLIT A/C UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished (as listed); Irrigation equipment present; CDD present; Homestead status indicated
• Financial info: Association fee includes 24-hour guard, pool, and recreational facilities
• HOA & community: HOA amenities include pool, tennis and pickleball courts, park, recreation facilities, dog park, community mailbox, street lights; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Golf and golf cart–friendly community; Deed restrictions; Monthly association fees reported; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20)
• Security: 24-hour guard service (association)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available/connected; High-speed internet available; Phone available; Sprinkler meter; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Home faces east; Residential zoning; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-family home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Metered sprinkler system; Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped and level lot; Near golf course; Paved/asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Water filtration system; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Living room combined with dining area; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $339k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,900 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,467
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 Arbella Loop	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-0%)	7mo	$307,500	$269	90
384 Arbella Loop	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	15mo	$294,000	$267	78
2082 Harston Trl	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,187 (+4%)	4mo	$310,000	$261	75
2298 Nehaul Ter	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-0%)	19mo	$314,000	$276	74
2192 Kerwood Loop	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-0%)	11mo	$280,000	$245	70
2457 Fosgate Pl	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,132 (-1%)	6mo	$263,000	$232	66
585 Lacy Pl	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+5%)	2mo	$321,500	$269	58
1856 Halyard Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-0%)	22mo	$329,000	$288	52
579 Audrey Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+5%)	12mo	$332,000	$278	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-83,027
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,756
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,247/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,024

Max offer price $254,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-382	+0% $-478	+5% $-574	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-573	+0% $-478	+5% $-382	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-391	base $-478	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
470 Oboe Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,200	$1.77	22d	1	0.46mi
445 Corbett Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	22d	1	0.59mi
3530 E Harbor Dr Fruitland Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,658	$1.56	2d	37	1.27mi
1315 Fort Lawn Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$4,500	$3.23	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscaping

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $339,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,000 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,000 Active 326 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    status Active
17. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-22
    price $339,000
19. 2025-10-25
    price $349,000
20. 2025-08-13
    price $359,000
21. 2025-07-12
    price $364,900
22. 2025-06-20
    listed $369,000 Active
23. 2012-02-08
    soldstatus $153,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,247 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,247 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$3,247
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$11,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $364,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $153,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,247 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.