315 Greensburg Rd · Hodgenville, KY 42748

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the comfort and convenience of this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick ranch. This well-kept home features an unfinished basement offering plenty of room for storage or future expansion. Outside, you’ll find a handy detached shed and a functional carport providing covered parking. A great opportunity for anyone seeking a solid home with room to personalize—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Functional carport
• Unfinished basement
• Detached shed

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED SHED
• FUNCTIONAL CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.1% in Hodgenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#259 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $170k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,234 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,092
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $22,073
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42748

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $169,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on marketlisting id $169,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-17
   status Active
6. 2026-03-01
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-25
   price $169,900
8. 2026-02-03
   price $174,900
9. 2025-12-03
   listed $179,900 Active
10. 2010-03-01
    soldstatus $42,000
11. 2009-12-10
    historical
12. 2009-09-15
    listed $76,500
13. 2001-09-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$84/mo · 226.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $3,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Larue County
• NCES district ID: 2103180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,784
• Composite: 27.66/100
• National rank: #6918
• State rank: #82 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hodgenville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #12858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,189

Population outlook (Larue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,441 people
• By 2030: 14,453 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,258 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 13,687 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 12,271 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 10,639 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Larue

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.53%
• Current HPI: 241.8077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+579.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — HKARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $169,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $174,900 HKARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $179,900 HKARMLS
• 2010-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-09-15 Listed $76,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records