953 Hunts Rd · Mathews, VA 23138

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2008 0.66 ac lot $187/sqft · 27% below area Est $355k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in Mathews County. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers an open floorplan. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom, which offers a shower and a large jetted tub. The backyard is fenced with a storage shed. Horn Harbor Marina is about half a mile from the home.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Large jetted tub
• Storage shed

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE JETTED TUB
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $260k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,263 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,900
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -26.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $11,403
• Equity at exit: $86,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $66,978
• Equity at exit: $113,834

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23138

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $207	+0% $133	+5% $60	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $48	+0% $133	+5% $218	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $199	base $133	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $259,900 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Charming home located in Mathews County. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers an open floorplan. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom, which offers a shower and a large jetted tub. The backyard is fenced with a storage shed. Horn Harbor Marina is about half a mile from the home.

18. 2026-03-03
    price $269,900 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Charming home located in Mathews County. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers an open floorplan. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom, which offers a shower and a large jetted tub. The backyard is fenced with a storage shed. Horn Harbor Marina is about half a mile from the home.

19. 2026-02-20
    listed $299,900 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Charming home located in Mathews County. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers an open floorplan. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom, which offers a shower and a large jetted tub. The backyard is fenced with a storage shed. Horn Harbor Marina is about half a mile from the home.

20. 2020-03-09
    soldstatus $167,000
21. 2020-02-24
    soldstatus $167,000 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    * * Ask about rent to own * * Move in ready freshly painted 1 level living home on over half acre lot with an open floorplan. Home features an eat in kitchen with oak cabinets, above mounted microwave, glass top stove, bartop seating and open to family and dining room. Enjoy living in historic Mathews where water access is in abundance, several great local parks, playgrounds, delicious restaurants, and history is everywhere. Horn Harbor Marina is 0.6 miles away and provides a renovated clubhouse, pool, and boat ramp. Make sure to view the 3D interactive tour linked to this listing to see all this home has to offer you!

22. 2019-11-21
    listed $167,000 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    * * Ask about rent to own * * Move in ready freshly painted 1 level living home on over half acre lot with an open floorplan. Home features an eat in kitchen with oak cabinets, above mounted microwave, glass top stove, bartop seating and open to family and dining room. Enjoy living in historic Mathews where water access is in abundance, several great local parks, playgrounds, delicious restaurants, and history is everywhere. Horn Harbor Marina is 0.6 miles away and provides a renovated clubhouse, pool, and boat ramp. Make sure to view the 3D interactive tour linked to this listing to see all this home has to offer you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$977/yr (+$81/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$2,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $2,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 1,066

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 140.0722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $259,900 CBRAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $269,900 CBRAR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $299,900 CBRAR
• 2020-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-24 Sold (MLS) $167,000 CBRAR
• 2019-11-21 Listed $167,000 CBRAR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.