13183 N Tanner Robert · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$407,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,301 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2001 5,750 sqft lot $177/sqft · 16% below area Est $483k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller! Priced below comps in area! Pool size yard w/grass & room to spare in Rancho Vistoso. Spacious 3br, 21/2 bath+den & large loft. Den has phone jack/cable, could be 4th BR/office. Upgrades incl:ceiling fan prewire in every room, Berber carpet, ceramic tile downstairs, island in kit, auto sprinkler sys, lot backs to greenbelt, 2zone ac upgrade to 12 seer, MBR has huge walk in closet, laundry room upstairs finished garage w/cabinets

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Island in kitchen
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OFFICE IN THE DOWNSTAIRS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND IN KITCHEN
• AUTO SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• LARGE OPEN UPSTAIRS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 45' x 110' x 60' x 110'; Zoned Oro Valley - PAD; City-maintained road
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Block and wrought iron fencing; Paved street; Sidewalks; East/West exposure; Dividable lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Zoned heating; Central air conditioning; Zoned cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Exhaust fan; Water softener; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $407k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Painted Sky Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 389 students, 16% FRL); Ironwood Ridge High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #80 of 381 statewide, top 21%, 1,556 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $407k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,868 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,199
• List price: $407,000
• Delta: -15.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13066 N Eagleview Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,350 (+2%)	3mo	$525,000	$223	74
355 W Sacaton Canyon Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,216 (-4%)	2mo	$480,000	$217	71
282 W Brinkley Springs Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,216 (-4%)	5mo	$495,000	$223	70
244 W Sacaton Canyon Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,216 (-4%)	6mo	$600,000	$271	67
1010 W Desert Firetail Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,278 (-1%)	4mo	$575,000	$252	62
399 W Klinger Canyon Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-9%)	5mo	$480,000	$229	61
13076 N Desert Olive Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,609 (+13%)	4mo	$480,000	$184	55
13047 N Desert Olive Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (-13%)	0mo	$378,000	$188	50
12884 N Pioneer Way	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,448 (+6%)	1mo	$540,000	$221	44
967 W Thornbush Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,612 (+14%)	5mo	$480,000	$184	42
13655 N Meadowhawk Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,625 (+14%)	0mo	$891,000	$339	39
942 W Zebra Tail Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,607 (+13%)	6mo	$725,000	$278	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-84,020
• Equity at exit: $60,685

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-96,649
• Equity at exit: $35,190

Cash invested: $113,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,134
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,696/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,306

Max offer price $357,103

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,750
• Closing costs: $12,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12949 N Desert Olive Dr Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2784	$2,526	$0.91	43d	1	0.38mi
12936 N Salt Cedar Dr Tucson, AZ	5.0	2.5	2750	$2,600	$0.95	43d	1	0.44mi
12825 N Mystic View Pl Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2965	$3,300	$1.11	23d	1	0.45mi
1022 W Blue Crest Dr Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2165	$2,195	$1.01	11d	1	0.46mi
13391 N Flaxleaf Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,500	$0.94	43d	1	0.47mi
13914 N Flaxleaf Pl Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,650	$1.00	43d	1	0.60mi
1194 W Rodriguez Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,895	$1.00	23d	1	0.66mi
755 W Vistoso Highlands Dr Oro Valley, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1587	$3,500	$2.20	3d	3	0.69mi
12884 N Pioneer Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2448	$4,500	$1.84	3d	1	0.72mi
13036 N Spinystar Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1893	$2,975	$1.57	43d	1	0.75mi
12690 N Bandanna Way Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1988	$2,195	$1.10	17d	1	0.76mi
13323 N Barlassina Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2321	$2,295	$0.99	43d	1	0.83mi
1254 W Versilia Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,295	$1.07	23d	1	0.89mi
13555 N Barlassina Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,995	$0.95	3d	1	0.91mi
13816 N Topflite Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2549	$4,500	$1.77	11d	1	0.97mi
114 W Freddie Canyon Way Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $407,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $407,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $407,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $407,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $407,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $407,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $407,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $407,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 511-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $407,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $407,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $407,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $407,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $407,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $407,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $407,000 Active 462-char remark
17. 2024-04-16
    historical $1,825
18. 2024-03-23
    listed $1,825
19. 2004-02-20
    soldstatus $185,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Motivated seller! Priced below comps in area! Pool size yard w/grass & room to spare in Rancho Vistoso. Spacious 3br, 21/2 bath+den & large loft. Den has phone jack/cable, could be 4th BR/office. Upgrades incl:ceiling fan prewire in every room, Berber carpet, ceramic tile downstairs, island in kit, auto sprinkler sys, lot backs to greenbelt, 2zone ac upgrade to 12 seer, MBR has huge walk in closet, laundry room upstairs finished garage w/cabinets

20. 2004-02-20
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Motivated seller! Priced below comps in area! Pool size yard w/grass & room to spare in Rancho Vistoso. Spacious 3br, 21/2 bath+den & large loft. Den has phone jack/cable, could be 4th BR/office. Upgrades incl:ceiling fan prewire in every room, Berber carpet, ceramic tile downstairs, island in kit, auto sprinkler sys, lot backs to greenbelt, 2zone ac upgrade to 12 seer, MBR has huge walk in closet, laundry room upstairs finished garage w/cabinets

21. 2004-01-30
    listed $192,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Motivated seller! Priced below comps in area! Pool size yard w/grass & room to spare in Rancho Vistoso. Spacious 3br, 21/2 bath+den & large loft. Den has phone jack/cable, could be 4th BR/office. Upgrades incl:ceiling fan prewire in every room, Berber carpet, ceramic tile downstairs, island in kit, auto sprinkler sys, lot backs to greenbelt, 2zone ac upgrade to 12 seer, MBR has huge walk in closet, laundry room upstairs finished garage w/cabinets

22. 2004-01-29
    historical
23. 2003-08-18
    listed $192,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,696 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,696 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,798
• − Property taxes: −$3,696
• − Insurance: −$2,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,831
• − Management: −$2,831
• − Depreciation: −$11,840
• Taxable loss: −$10,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+112.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $407,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-16 Rental Removed $1,825 TARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Listed for Rent $1,825 TARMLS
• 2004-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-20 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-01-30 Listed $192,900 MLSSAZ
• 2004-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-08-18 Listed $192,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,696 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.