628 Oak St · Old Forge, PA 18518

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 3,506 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained investment property. Separate water meters and electric meters. Roof is only 5 years old. Anderson windows and vinyl siding. Manageable size level yard. Upstairs unit has a finished bonus room that can be used for an additional bedroom or office. All measurements are approximate and not guaranteed.

Key facts

• Level yard
• Finished bonus room
• 3,506 sq ft lot

Tags

• SEPARATE WATER METERS
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC METERS
• FINISHED BONUS ROOM
• LEVEL YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 22 x 166 x 20 x 166; Lot size approximately 0.0805 acres
• Financial info: Multifamily property with 2 total units

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex (residential income property); Updated/remodeled; Built in 1930 (estimated); 1,600 total living area; Entry facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total (each unit is 1 bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.1% in Old Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#287 in PA, #2,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Old Forge SD (suburban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #409 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.43%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $69,911
• Equity at exit: $94,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $184,454
• Equity at exit: $165,138

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18518

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $535	+0% $478	+5% $421	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $397	+0% $478	+5% $559	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $520	base $478	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Oak St Unit 2 Old Forge, PA	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	0.30mi
75 Marimar Dr Old Forge, PA	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	14d	1	0.86mi
163 Bianca Way Old Forge, PA	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,500	$2.09	14d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 315-char remark
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $165,000 Active 315-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$795
• After-tax cash flow: $4,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Old Forge SD
• NCES district ID: 4218120
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,409
• Composite: 30.6/100
• National rank: #6196
• State rank: #409 of 539 in PA

Livability — Old Forge

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #2531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Forge, PA
• City population: 8,533
• Population (ZIP): 8,533

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.15%
• Current HPI: 242.2839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $170,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-03 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-23 Listed $165,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+34.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $34,598 · +2015.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.