19408 Elston Way · Estero, FL 33928

$600,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2019 9,334 sqft lot Est $565k · 6% over $456/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 58% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some Homes Just Feel Different the Moment You Walk In. There's something about 19408 Elston Way that stops you in your tracks, and it's not just the impeccable condition or the thoughtful Lennar Venice floor plan. It's the moment you pass through the great room and your eyes are drawn straight through the oversized picture window screen to the glittering lake beyond, the sun already beginning its slow, golden descent over the water. This is the view you moved to Florida for. Built in 2019 and lovingly maintained, this 3 bedroom, 3 full bath home offers 1,852 sq ft of bright, open living designed around that great room experience. The kitchen anchors the heart of the home with a breakfast ba

Key facts

• Gated community
• Heated salt pool
• Custom built in pool

Tags

• OVERSIZED PICTURE WINDOW
• EXTENDED SCREENED LANAI
• CUSTOM BUILT IN POOL
• HEATED SALT POOL
• SOLAR PANELS
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has view; Waterfront on a lake; Lot is rectangular and includes a pond; Lot exposures to the west; Zoned RPD
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes management, insurance, irrigation water, recreation facilities, road maintenance, street lights and security; Community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball, sport courts, basketball court, bocce court, playground, dog park, park, trails, sidewalks, business center, library, cabana, restaurant and private membership options; Community management on site; 1,325 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Gated community; Community security included in association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; East-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Built on foundation (resale)
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Shutters (manual); Lanai (open); Screened porch; Porch; Screened patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Freezer; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water purifier
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Bathtub; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; High speed internet; Single hung windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-939/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $586k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $540k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $540k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,404/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $540,391 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $564,860
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19431 Elston Way	0.07mi	3/3.0	2,032 (+10%)	2mo	$564,900	$278	79
17005 Ashcomb Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,010 (+8%)	22mo	$730,000	$363	61
19617 Deming Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (+10%)	2mo	$663,000	$326	47
19555 Utopia Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-9%)	16mo	$515,000	$305	47
19601 Utopia Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,998 (+8%)	23mo	$595,000	$298	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-117,840
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-169,399
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,938/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$456
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,135
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,503

Max offer price $586,180

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $92	+0% $-78	+5% $-248	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-292	+0% $-78	+5% $135	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $74	base $-78	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19347 Elston Way Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$7,500	$3.69	25d	1	0.17mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	25d	1	0.34mi
19952 Beverly Park Rd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	0.35mi
19265 Elston Way Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.41mi
19860 The Pl Blvd Miromar Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2606	$3,600	$1.38	5d	1	0.42mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	0.45mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	25d	1	0.48mi
19752 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2491	$5,000	$2.01	5d	1	0.55mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.65mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	23d	1	0.72mi
19701 Deming Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	25d	1	0.73mi
20210 Kingmont Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2267	$3,995	$1.76	25d	1	1.14mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	25d	1	1.16mi
20040 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	2534	$3,800	$1.50	25d	1	1.18mi
18262 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2098	$3,700	$1.76	25d	1	1.18mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	25d	1	1.21mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	25d	1	1.23mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2621	$3,495	$1.33	17d	1	1.29mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	5d	1	1.29mi
18315 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$4,995	$2.04	5d	1	1.34mi
18336 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2434	$8,500	$3.49	25d	1	1.38mi
18278 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$7,500	$3.08	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $456 · $5,472/yr
• Likely covers: watercable

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $600,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $600,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $600,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,938 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,938 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$5,938
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,188
• − Management: −$5,188
• − HOA: −$5,472
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,641
• After-tax cash flow: $1,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $600,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,429,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,938 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.