1427 New Hampshire Ave · Bristol, VA 24201

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1925 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home has been condemned by the city of Bristol, VA and may not be entered.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Cap rate 76.9% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland View Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 175 students, 98% FRL); Virginia Middle (math 56% / reading 71%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 487 students, 101% FRL); Virginia High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 637 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 252.17%
• DSCR: 12.22
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,838
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Fuller St	0.22mi	2/1.0	864 (-0%)	0mo	$75,000	$87	89
540 Madison St	0.34mi	2/1.0	870 (+0%)	5mo	$35,000	$40	79
1507 Massachusetts Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	789 (-9%)	9mo	$119,700	$152	71
159 Hillside Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0	809 (-7%)	11mo	$109,000	$135	70
165 Hughes St	0.24mi	2/1.0	804 (-7%)	10mo	$148,000	$184	69
136 Beaver St #1	0.56mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	2mo	$140,000	$172	63
617 Dixie St	0.62mi	2/1.0	842 (-3%)	9mo	$65,500	$78	59
1002 Massachusetts Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	804 (-7%)	8mo	$115,000	$143	58
382 Texas Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	973 (+12%)	6mo	$99,000	$102	58
236 Beaver St	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	884 (+2%)	12mo	$135,000	$153	55
934 Massachusetts Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	957 (+10%)	8mo	$125,000	$131	44
324 Reservoir St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+10%)	11mo	$160,000	$168	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.81×
• Total profit: $53,806
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.41×
• Total profit: $119,331
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24201

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $303/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $139

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $887	+0% $883	+5% $878	+10% $874
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $833	+0% $883	+5% $932	+10% $982
Rate	-1.0pp $890	-0.5pp $886	base $883	+0.5pp $879	+1.0pp $875

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1733 Dunlap St Bristol, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	14d	1	0.13mi
135 Kingsolver St Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	0.47mi
361 Heathland Dr Unit 365 Bristol, VA	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	44d	1	0.88mi
1225 Carriage Cir #203 Bristol, VA	2.0	2.0	968	$1,150	$1.19	14d	1	1.13mi
1206 Golf St Bristol, TN	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	14d	1	1.38mi
1001 Virginia Ave Unit 2 Bristol, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$303
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $11,013
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,643
• After-tax cash flow: $7,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100450
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,978
• Composite: 52.4/100
• National rank: #1579
• State rank: #53 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #4544

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, VA
• City population: 16,039
• Population (ZIP): 16,039

Population outlook (Bristol County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,113 people
• By 2030: 15,510 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 14,121 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 12,847 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 9,870 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,883 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 1% Iranian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bristol

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.40%
• Current HPI: 196.2099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $15,000 TVRMLS