104 Schley Ave · Toms River, NJ 08755

$349,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,409 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $421/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious end-unit 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome located in the highly desirable North Point Hollow community. Filled with abundant natural light and offering a functional, comfortable layout, this home is perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary bedroom features generous closet space, while the second bedroom provides flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional family space. The full bathroom is complemented by a convenient half bath for visitors. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening on the private balcony. Additional highlights include a one-car garage, recently updated HVAC system and water heater for added peace of mind, plus a

Key facts

• Tennis court
• Community pool
• Balcony

Tags

• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee; HOA amenities include swimming pool, clubhouse, basketball court, common areas, and playground; Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Condominium (attached property)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on second level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Total 1.5 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: AC units; Blinds / shades; Light fixtures; Gas cooking
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,375/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,882 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-67,401
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,613
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,248/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$421
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,594

Max offer price $324,882

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-52	+0% $-173	+5% $-294	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-306	+0% $-173	+5% $-40	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-84	base $-173	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	0.57mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	14d	1	0.57mi
803 Mississippi St #1503 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1696	$3,150	$1.86	0d	1	1.19mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$2,968	$1.81	0d	23	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $421 · $5,052/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $349,900 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$5,248
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − HOA: −$5,052
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in North Point Hollow offers a good balance of updates and original charm, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace old light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace old light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $349,900 MOMLS