3000 Elmwood Dr · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$84,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1963 7,405 sqft lot $117/sqft · 12% above area Est $75k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 720 square foot, single wide mobile home has a whole lot going for it. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is located it the Lakeland Estates where the county is installing curbs and gutters in this neighborhood. It has a lot of features packed into it. Let me make a list: 1. Leased Solar System no worries about upkeep. 6.Home Security system 2. Electric front gate. 7. Hot tub 4. Paved driveway 8. Satellite TV and Internet 5. Huge RV canopy 10. Stainless Steel Appliances Not to mention this home comes fully furnished including Washer and Dryer, Microwave, furniture and cooking utencils.

Key facts

• Leased solar system
• Hot tub
• Home security system

Tags

• LEASED SOLAR SYSTEM
• HOME SECURITY SYSTEM
• ELECTRIC FRONT GATE
• HOT TUB
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SATELLITE TV AND INTERNET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow W. Wallace Elementary (418 students, 86% FRL); Woodrow Wallace Middle (273 students, 81% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($584 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.60%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,452
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: 11.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4121 Balboa St	0.15mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	4mo	$107,000	$149	90
4020 Helen St	0.19mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	8mo	$44,500	$66	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $59,313
• Equity at exit: $50,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $145,998
• Equity at exit: $90,019

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $653/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $631	-5% $607	+0% $584	+5% $560	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $528	+0% $584	+5% $639	+10% $695
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $605	base $584	+0.5pp $562	+1.0pp $539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,500 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,500 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,500 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,500 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,500 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,500 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $84,500 Active 1142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1142 chars)

    This 720 square foot, single wide mobile home has a whole lot going for it. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is located it the Lakeland Estates where the county is installing curbs and gutters in this neighborhood. It has a lot of features packed into it. Let me make a list: 1. Leased Solar System no worries about upkeep. 6.Home Security system 2. Electric front gate. 7. Hot tub 4. Paved driveway 8. Satellite TV and Internet 5. Huge RV canopy 10. Stainless Steel Appliances Not to mention this home comes fully furnished including Washer and Dryer, Microwave, furniture and cooking utencils.

18. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    This 720 square foot single wide has a lot more going for it than you would think. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is situated behind the library in Lakland Estates. It has lots of features pack into it. First of all, you will notice the electronic gate and roof-over with leased solar panels installed. As you enter the gate, you will notice the large RV carport, the property is fenced all around, the property is well taken care of, the cement parking deck, there and is a hot tub tucked behind the front deck area. Further back on the property, you will see two sheds and a gazebo. The home itself is on a permanent foundation with newer wood siding. Inside the home as you enter the kitchen, you will find a stainless steel fridge and stove in a comfortable sized kitchen. The furnace is propane, ducted throughout the house and has AC and evaporative coolers. The home has been re insulated and has dual pane windows. The hallway bedroom has been used as storage but has a closet and could be used either way. The main bedroom is a comfortable size and tucked in the closed is the washer and dryer. There is a security system for the home. The home comes fully furnished.

19. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $70,000

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    This 720 square foot single wide has a lot more going for it than you would think. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is situated behind the library in Lakland Estates. It has lots of features pack into it. First of all, you will notice the electronic gate and roof-over with leased solar panels installed. As you enter the gate, you will notice the large RV carport, the property is fenced all around, the property is well taken care of, the cement parking deck, there and is a hot tub tucked behind the front deck area. Further back on the property, you will see two sheds and a gazebo. The home itself is on a permanent foundation with newer wood siding. Inside the home as you enter the kitchen, you will find a stainless steel fridge and stove in a comfortable sized kitchen. The furnace is propane, ducted throughout the house and has AC and evaporative coolers. The home has been re insulated and has dual pane windows. The hallway bedroom has been used as storage but has a closet and could be used either way. The main bedroom is a comfortable size and tucked in the closed is the washer and dryer. There is a security system for the home. The home comes fully furnished.

20. 2025-06-20
    status Pending 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    This 720 square foot single wide has a lot more going for it than you would think. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is situated behind the library in Lakland Estates. It has lots of features pack into it. First of all, you will notice the electronic gate and roof-over with leased solar panels installed. As you enter the gate, you will notice the large RV carport, the property is fenced all around, the property is well taken care of, the cement parking deck, there and is a hot tub tucked behind the front deck area. Further back on the property, you will see two sheds and a gazebo. The home itself is on a permanent foundation with newer wood siding. Inside the home as you enter the kitchen, you will find a stainless steel fridge and stove in a comfortable sized kitchen. The furnace is propane, ducted throughout the house and has AC and evaporative coolers. The home has been re insulated and has dual pane windows. The hallway bedroom has been used as storage but has a closet and could be used either way. The main bedroom is a comfortable size and tucked in the closed is the washer and dryer. There is a security system for the home. The home comes fully furnished.

21. 2025-06-11
    listed $79,000 Active 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    This 720 square foot single wide has a lot more going for it than you would think. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is situated behind the library in Lakland Estates. It has lots of features pack into it. First of all, you will notice the electronic gate and roof-over with leased solar panels installed. As you enter the gate, you will notice the large RV carport, the property is fenced all around, the property is well taken care of, the cement parking deck, there and is a hot tub tucked behind the front deck area. Further back on the property, you will see two sheds and a gazebo. The home itself is on a permanent foundation with newer wood siding. Inside the home as you enter the kitchen, you will find a stainless steel fridge and stove in a comfortable sized kitchen. The furnace is propane, ducted throughout the house and has AC and evaporative coolers. The home has been re insulated and has dual pane windows. The hallway bedroom has been used as storage but has a closet and could be used either way. The main bedroom is a comfortable size and tucked in the closed is the washer and dryer. There is a security system for the home. The home comes fully furnished.

22. 2004-06-16
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$653
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $5,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $5,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+322.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $84,500 SSMLS
• 2025-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-14 Sold (MLS) $70,000 SSMLS
• 2025-06-20 Pending — SSMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $79,000 SSMLS
• 2004-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $653 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.