9014 Emerald Cane Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2020 7,405 sqft lot $198/sqft · 8% below area Est $395k · 8% under $125/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, single-story home in Sienna welcomes you with a spacious entrance foyer, a formal dining room, and a kitchen that includes a breakfast area. The generous family room opens to a relaxing covered rear patio, and a walk-in utility room adds convenient storage. The master bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, a private toilet enclosure, and a large walk-in master closet. Upgrades include full gutters and a gas stub at the back patio. Easy access to downtown and TMC via the nearby Fort Bend Tollway—don’t miss this!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Covered rear patio
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• SPACIOUS ENTRANCE FOYER
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $365k).
• Recommended offer: $332k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,439
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -7.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (-3%)	9mo	$335,000	$187	75
8719 Azalea Crossing Ct	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,977 (+7%)	10mo	$434,995	$220	62
8731 Arbor Trail Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-1%)	16mo	$320,000	$175	62
9003 Stanley Oak Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,049 (+11%)	17mo	$368,000	$180	60
8711 Crossing Oak Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,086 (+13%)	13mo	$359,990	$173	55
1807 Meadow Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-5%)	23mo	$375,000	$214	48
1914 Waters Branch Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,070 (+12%)	13mo	$409,000	$198	42
1802 Misty Field Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	2,103 (+14%)	12mo	$460,000	$219	41
1931 Misty Field Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,046 (+11%)	18mo	$390,000	$191	41
1942 Waters Branch Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,120 (+15%)	20mo	$429,990	$203	34
8718 Arbor Trail Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,082 (+13%)	22mo	$420,000	$202	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-5,635
• Equity at exit: $76,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $21,470
• Equity at exit: $70,905

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$811 /mo · $9,734/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,800

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $932	-5% $828	+0% $725	+5% $622	+10% $518
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $539	+0% $725	+5% $911	+10% $1,098
Rate	-1.0pp $909	-0.5pp $818	base $725	+0.5pp $630	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.20mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.43mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 590-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $365,000 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, single-story home in Sienna welcomes you with a spacious entrance foyer, a formal dining room, and a kitchen that includes a breakfast area. The generous family room opens to a relaxing covered rear patio, and a walk-in utility room adds convenient storage. The master bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, a private toilet enclosure, and a large walk-in master closet. Upgrades include full gutters and a gas stub at the back patio. Easy access to downtown and TMC via the nearby Fort Bend Tollway—don’t miss this!

16. 2026-03-20
    listed $368,000 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, single-story home in Sienna welcomes you with a spacious entrance foyer, a formal dining room, and a kitchen that includes a breakfast area. The generous family room opens to a relaxing covered rear patio, and a walk-in utility room adds convenient storage. The master bedroom features an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, a private toilet enclosure, and a large walk-in master closet. Upgrades include full gutters and a gas stub at the back patio. Easy access to downtown and TMC via the nearby Fort Bend Tollway—don’t miss this!

17. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus
18. 2021-11-04
    soldstatus Sold 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome home! This gorgeous, nearly new home in Sienna is the popular Brookstone Collection, "Onyx II" Plan with Stone/Brick Elevation "G". There is a lovely entrance foyer, a formal dining room, the kitchen has granite countertops, an oversized island, stainless appliances, lots of cabinet space and gas range. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking tub and separate shower, private toilet enclosure and a large walk-in closet. The two carpeted secondary bedrooms offer plenty of space. The spacious covered patio & large backyard is awesome for guests, kids & pets! Upgrades Include full gutters, gas stub at back patio, has separate outlet ready for a generator and has full sprinkler system. This is a Smart Home Operated by Amazon Alexa The Sienna amenities include 100+ acres of parks, trails, playgrounds & pools; plus golf, sports fields, stables & close shopping! Easy access to downtown & TMC via the nearby Fort Bend tollway! Don't miss this!

19. 2021-09-26
    status Pending 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome home! This gorgeous, nearly new home in Sienna is the popular Brookstone Collection, "Onyx II" Plan with Stone/Brick Elevation "G". There is a lovely entrance foyer, a formal dining room, the kitchen has granite countertops, an oversized island, stainless appliances, lots of cabinet space and gas range. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking tub and separate shower, private toilet enclosure and a large walk-in closet. The two carpeted secondary bedrooms offer plenty of space. The spacious covered patio & large backyard is awesome for guests, kids & pets! Upgrades Include full gutters, gas stub at back patio, has separate outlet ready for a generator and has full sprinkler system. This is a Smart Home Operated by Amazon Alexa The Sienna amenities include 100+ acres of parks, trails, playgrounds & pools; plus golf, sports fields, stables & close shopping! Easy access to downtown & TMC via the nearby Fort Bend tollway! Don't miss this!

20. 2021-09-20
    status Option Pending 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome home! This gorgeous, nearly new home in Sienna is the popular Brookstone Collection, "Onyx II" Plan with Stone/Brick Elevation "G". There is a lovely entrance foyer, a formal dining room, the kitchen has granite countertops, an oversized island, stainless appliances, lots of cabinet space and gas range. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking tub and separate shower, private toilet enclosure and a large walk-in closet. The two carpeted secondary bedrooms offer plenty of space. The spacious covered patio & large backyard is awesome for guests, kids & pets! Upgrades Include full gutters, gas stub at back patio, has separate outlet ready for a generator and has full sprinkler system. This is a Smart Home Operated by Amazon Alexa The Sienna amenities include 100+ acres of parks, trails, playgrounds & pools; plus golf, sports fields, stables & close shopping! Easy access to downtown & TMC via the nearby Fort Bend tollway! Don't miss this!

21. 2021-09-16
    listed $314,900 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome home! This gorgeous, nearly new home in Sienna is the popular Brookstone Collection, "Onyx II" Plan with Stone/Brick Elevation "G". There is a lovely entrance foyer, a formal dining room, the kitchen has granite countertops, an oversized island, stainless appliances, lots of cabinet space and gas range. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking tub and separate shower, private toilet enclosure and a large walk-in closet. The two carpeted secondary bedrooms offer plenty of space. The spacious covered patio & large backyard is awesome for guests, kids & pets! Upgrades Include full gutters, gas stub at back patio, has separate outlet ready for a generator and has full sprinkler system. This is a Smart Home Operated by Amazon Alexa The Sienna amenities include 100+ acres of parks, trails, playgrounds & pools; plus golf, sports fields, stables & close shopping! Easy access to downtown & TMC via the nearby Fort Bend tollway! Don't miss this!

22. 2020-09-03
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-08-07
    status Pending
24. 2020-07-24
    price $259,999
25. 2020-06-12
    listed $287,040 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,734 · $811/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,734 · $811/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$9,734
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,529
• − Management: −$4,529
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable income: $3,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$824
• After-tax cash flow: $7,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $368,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-16 Listed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-24 Price Changed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2020-06-12 Listed $287,040 HARMLS

Property tax history

+40.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,734 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.