1316 83rd St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential at 1316 83rd St. in Lubbock, Texas—a true fixer-upper bursting with character and opportunity. This property offers a solid foundation and plenty of space to bring your vision to life. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or DIY enthusiast, this home is ready for your personal touch. With its charming exterior, this property has all the makings of a standout residence once restored. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into something special! The main/front house is a 2 bed/1 bath, and has significant fire damage in the back bedroom. There are 2 back houses. Unit B has 1337 square feet with 2 bedrooms, an office, and 2 baths. Un

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport
• Utilities: Road surfaces: asphalt and gravel
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: see remarks; Mobile home listed as other structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/Window air conditioning
• Interior features: See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.90%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $26,643
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $69,813
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1606 82nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,580	$1.87	14d	16	0.28mi
8217 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,570	$1.80	14d	28	0.53mi
1101 65th St Unit Rear Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$625	$1.25	14d	1	1.15mi
9502 University Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	808	$950	$1.18	14d	5	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 374-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$748/yr (+$62/mo · 119.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $5,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $75,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.