1356 Kepler Rd · Toledo, OH 43612

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 5,000 sqft lot Est $147k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY!

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Large living room
• Formal dining area

Tags

• RENOVATED BRICK TUDOR
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• TWO REMODELED FULL BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Detached carport (1 space); Driveway; Total parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story; No shared/common walls; Entry levels on main and upper
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Built on two levels
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main; Kitchen on upper
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedrooms (two on main): Bedroom 2 on main; Upper-level bedrooms (two on upper)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Finished basement; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,584 statewide, top 95%, 509 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $150k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,292 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,880
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4510 Eastway St	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,940 (-10%)	3mo	$170,000	$88	69
4148 Carthage Rd	0.25mi	4/1.5	1,932 (-11%)	18mo	$139,900	$72	54
4104 Willys Pkwy	0.31mi	4/1.5	1,960 (-9%)	19mo	$180,000	$92	52
1107 Mcdonald St	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,896 (-12%)	14mo	$105,000	$55	52
4046 Peak Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,906 (-12%)	10mo	$83,000	$44	45
4040 Overland Pkwy	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (-10%)	22mo	$116,000	$60	45
4030 Westway St	0.39mi	4/1.0	1,938 (-10%)	21mo	$147,000	$76	43
4202 N Haven Ave	0.34mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,959 (-9%)	24mo	$92,000	$47	40
3823 Willys Pkwy	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,934 (-10%)	13mo	$132,000	$68	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,400
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,731
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43612

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,435/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4459 N Haven Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1416	$1,200	$0.85	14d	1	0.28mi
4120 Parrakeet Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,450	$1.03	43d	1	0.33mi
4614 Commonwealth Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1459	$1,295	$0.89	14d	1	0.44mi
1477 W Sylvania Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1570	$1,250	$0.80	43d	1	0.47mi
3905 Peru St Toledo, OH	4.0	3.0	1548	$1,300	$0.84	21d	1	0.93mi
614 Cadillac Ct Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1581	$1,075	$0.68	23d	1	1.42mi
610 Cadillac Ct Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1409	$1,050	$0.75	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $149,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,435
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,480
• Household income: $50,728
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1203.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.05%
• Current HPI: 235.5389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.01%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,900 NORIS
• 2026-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $96,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $88,000 NORIS
• 2012-05-11 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NORIS
• 2012-02-23 Listed $32,000 NORIS
• 2006-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-27 Listed $103,000 NORIS
• 2006-03-27 Sold (MLS) $96,000 NORIS
• 2002-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-25 Sold (MLS) $88,000 NORIS
• 2001-11-20 Listed $94,900 NORIS
• 2001-11-19 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2001-10-19 Listed $94,900 NORIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,435 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.