106 Cedar Ln Unit 106 Cedar Lane · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$399,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition 1.10 ac lot $148/sqft · 19% below area Est $492k · 19% under $250/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFUL COMPLETELY REMODELED HOUSE ON AN OVERSIZED 1 ACRE LOT! WALK TO FAMILY FAWN HILL PARK WITH OLYMPIC SIZED POOL AND PLAYGROUND. LOTS OF ROOM FOR THE WHOLE FAMILY, 5 BEDROOMS AND 3 BATHROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH CATHEDRAL CEILINGS , WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH KITCHEN ISLAND. LARGE 3 SEASON ROOM AND DECK. FINISHED WALK OUT BASEMENT WITH SEPARATE ENTRANCE , FAMILY SIZED SAUNA. CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Completely remodeled
• Olympic sized pool

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• OVERSIZED LOT
• WALK TO PARK
• OLYMPIC SIZED POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (37.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.7% in Hemlock Farms — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 552 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $250,516 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $491,720
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -18.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Forest Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+2%)	22mo	$314,000	$114	65
402 Forest Dr	0.20mi	5/3.5	3,184 (+18%)	6mo	$475,000	$149	59
101 Blueridge Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,948 (+9%)	6mo	$420,000	$142	59
100 Cliff Dr	0.68mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,701 (0%)	5mo	$545,000	$202	55
102 Lookout Dr	0.97mi	5/3.0	2,470 (-8%)	10mo	$340,000	$138	42
816 Woodland Ct	0.81mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,883 (+7%)	8mo	$334,000	$116	38
121 Blueridge Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-18%)	20mo	$380,000	$173	38
807 Dogwood Ct	0.89mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,144 (+16%)	1mo	$494,500	$157	34
139 Bluestone Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,250 (-17%)	5mo	$465,000	$207	32
114 Overlook Ln	1.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,345 (-13%)	4mo	$450,000	$192	30
115 Heron Bay	1.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,113 (+15%)	8mo	$600,000	$193	26
112 Lookout Dr	0.88mi	5/3.0	3,230 (+20%)	18mo	$350,000	$108	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $152,142
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $499,809
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $464,000 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 552
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-1,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,807

Max offer price $250,516

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-750	-5% $-888	+0% $-1,026	+5% $-1,164	+10% $-1,302
Rent	-10% $-1,224	-5% $-1,125	+0% $-1,026	+5% $-927	+10% $-828
Rate	-1.0pp $-825	-0.5pp $-925	base $-1,026	+0.5pp $-1,130	+1.0pp $-1,235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Cedar Ct Lords Valley, PA	5.0	3.0	2700	$2,500	$0.93	25d	1	0.03mi
101 Blueshelf Ln Lords Valley, PA	4.0	2.5	1772	$2,500	$1.41	0d	1	0.58mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	139d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: clubhouse, pool, lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual feeAssociation amenities include beach access, sauna, tennis courts, security, playground, dog park, indoor pool, gated entry, and clubhouseAssociation fee $2,995 annually (about $249.58/month)Association fee includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (paved)
• Security: Security serviceSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable availableSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential zoning
• Construction: Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: DeckPorchScreened porchPatioWooded lotCommunity lake accessPrivate maintained paved roadWorkshop

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenRefrigerator
• Flooring: HardwoodLaminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingElectric heatingHot water heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsOpen floor planEat-in kitchenSaunaFinished walk-out basementFireplace in living room with stone surround
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry on lower level

HOA detail $250/mo · $3,000/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $399,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $399,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $399,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-06-26
    days on market $399,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-06-24
    days on market $399,000 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,000 Active 30 DOM
20. 2026-06-21
    days on market $399,000 Active 29 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,000 Active 26 DOM
22. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,000 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,000 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,000 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,000 Active 17 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 16 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $399,000 Active 15 DOM
30. 2026-06-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
32. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
33. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
34. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 8 DOM
35. 2026-05-23
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$19,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,718
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,500–$40,500 screening

This completely remodeled house on an oversized 1-acre lot is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a beautiful living space with a spacious deck and sauna, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wallenpaupack South El Sch D PA #654/1,518 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Wallenpaupack Area Ms F PA #257/512 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Wallenpaupack Area Hs B+ PA #48/437 Nat'l #2,083/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• County: Pike · 53,548 people
• Population (ZIP): 12,446
• Household income: $75,463
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: clubhouse, pool, lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual feeAssociation amenities include beach access, sauna, tennis courts, security, playground, dog park, indoor pool, gated entry, and clubhouseAssociation fee $2,995 annually (about $249.58/month)Association fee includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (paved)
• Security: Security serviceSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable availableSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential zoning
• Construction: Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: DeckPorchScreened porchPatioWooded lotCommunity lake accessPrivate maintained paved roadWorkshop

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenRefrigerator
• Flooring: HardwoodLaminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingElectric heatingHot water heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsOpen floor planEat-in kitchenSaunaFinished walk-out basementFireplace in living room with stone surround
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry on lower level

Price history

+166.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $399,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2015-05-19 Listed $150,000 PWMLS
• 2010-07-09 Listed $149,900 PWMLS