Carolina Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Manufactured · 441 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 57% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.6

Listing remarks MLS

The Carolina is our most popular model! And you can immediately see why. This beautiful home has sheetrock throughout the living area, kitchen, and breakfast nook. You are going to LOVE this kitchen!! The cabinet storage is endless, and the oversized island allows for extra bar seating. The split floor plan allows for privacy in the primary bedroom. All brand-new appliances you see are included, along with a 2-car driveway, 6x8 front deck, 4x4 back deck, 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, and a 10-year warranty! Residents gain access to our resort style amenities. These include a pool and splash pad, clubhouse, game room, fitness center, playground, dog park, basketball court, and a covered pavilion with some grills! We allow fences, carports, deck extensions and awnings! The Carolina model also comes in different color schemes. Reach out to us for more information!! Land is leased, not owned.

Key facts

• 2-car driveway
• Split floor plan
• 4x4 back deck

Tags

• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• 2-CAR DRIVEWAY
• 6X8 FRONT DECK
• 4X4 BACK DECK

🏗️ New construction. The $114,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $150,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-709 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $47k (58.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.6% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rustic Oak El (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 674 students, 31% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 57% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,389 (58.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.26%
• DSCR: 0.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -23.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 County Rd 127	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-0%)	5mo	$335,000	$292	80
536 Castlelake Dr	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$202	58
1304 Chelsea Ln	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+2%)	5mo	$235,000	$199	57
506 Mary Ann Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	6mo	$259,900	$241	49
401 Castlelake Dr	1.50mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+9%)	3mo	$270,000	$215	48
307 Bellmar Ln	1.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (+6%)	4mo	$264,900	$217	43
415 Bellmar Ln	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-12%)	5mo	$224,900	$220	42
514 Bellmar Ln	1.23mi	3/2.0	1,009 (-12%)	6mo	$213,000	$211	39
510 Brandywyne Dr	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+18%)	1mo	$271,000	$199	39
210 Brigadoon Ln	1.27mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+13%)	4mo	$229,900	$176	38
103 Brigadoon Ln	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+25%)	4mo	$265,000	$184	37
304 Avondale Ln	1.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+24%)	2mo	$260,000	$183	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-69,016
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.77×
• Total profit: $-116,409
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active
• Median asking: $109,900 ($95/sqft)
• Median days on market: 398 d
• This list price: 64% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$850
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $47,389

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-605	-5% $-657	+0% $-709	+5% $-761	+10% $-813
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-768	+0% $-709	+5% $-650	+10% $-591
Rate	-1.0pp $-634	-0.5pp $-671	base $-709	+0.5pp $-748	+1.0pp $-788

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Mooney Rd Unit 122MOO Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,649	$1.36	20d	1	0.07mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,995	$1.57	73d	1	1.34mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,895	$1.49	37d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail $850/mo · $10,200/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 441 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $114,900 Active 439 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $114,900 Active 438 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 433 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $114,900 Active 431 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $114,900 Active 430 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $114,900 Active 428 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $114,900 Active 426 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $114,900 Active 425 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $114,900 Active 424 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $114,900 Active 423 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $114,900 Active 422 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 420 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 419 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 418 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $114,900 Active 417 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $114,900 Active 416 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $114,900 Active 415 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $114,900 Active 414 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $114,900 Active 413 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $114,900 Active 412 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 411 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 409 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $114,900 Active 408 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $114,900 Active 407 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 406 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 405 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 404 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 403 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 402 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $114,900 Active 401 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $114,900 Active 400 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $114,900 Active 399 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $114,900 Active 398 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $114,900 Active 396 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $114,900 Active 394 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $114,900 Active 393 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 390 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $114,900 Active 389 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 388 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $114,900 Active 387 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $114,900 Active 385 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 381 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 380 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 379 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 376 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 375 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 374 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,626
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and fresh paint to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rustic Oak El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Pearland J H East B+ TX #141/1,662 Nat'l #1,620/14,009 High Pearland H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $114,900 Zillow