2615 21st St · Great Bend, KS 67530

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1930 6,700 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Fenced front yard
• New roof
• 6,700 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEWLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGH SCHOOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; Gas starter fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#138 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Great Bend (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #124 of 169 in KS (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elem (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #273 of 684 statewide, top 45%, 301 students, 49% FRL); Great Bend Middle School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #125 of 219 statewide, top 59%, 460 students, 68% FRL); Great Bend High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #216 of 327 statewide, top 70%, 913 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Barton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.13%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $1,818
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,634
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67530

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,503/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $308	+0% $280	+5% $252	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $232	+0% $280	+5% $328	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $305	base $280	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   price $99,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $105,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 158 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 157 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 156 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 155 DOM
20. 2025-12-23
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,503
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,899
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Bend
• NCES district ID: 2006660
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,027
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7883
• State rank: #124 of 169 in KS

Livability — Great Bend

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #6794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Bend, KS
• City population: 17,979
• Population (ZIP): 17,979

Population outlook (Barton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,088 people
• By 2030: 25,418 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 24,010 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 22,719 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 20,690 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 18,869 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Barton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.8) · D 20.9% · R 77.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -43.3pp · 2024: -56.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.8 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+43.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.50%
• Current HPI: 151.6054
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $105,000 Hays MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,503 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.