20859 Wildbird Cherry Ln · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 5,062 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation. Home complete 6/30/26. Welcome to Maple Heights, a new home community featuring new houses for sale in Porter, TX by Century Communities—one of the nation's top homebuilders. Conveniently situated 30 minutes northeast of downtown Houston—near Int

Key facts

• 5,062 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions INC manages the HOA; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Century Communities; 2026 construction; Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $249,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); Porter H S (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,209 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,363 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,400
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 1.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-24,563
• Equity at exit: $36,739

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,160
• Equity at exit: $21,304

Cash invested: $68,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,292
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $246,400

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,600
• Closing costs: $7,392
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.24mi
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $249,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    price $249,900 961-char remark
13. 2026-05-14
    price $249,900 431-char remark
14. 2026-05-06
    price $256,900 431-char remark
15. 2026-05-06
    price $261,900 431-char remark
16. 2026-05-06
    price $256,900 961-char remark
17. 2026-05-06
    price $256,900 431-char remark
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $261,900 Active 961-char remark
19. 2026-05-02
    price $261,900 431-char remark
20. 2026-04-29
    listed $258,900 Active 431-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,611/yr (+$301/mo · 375.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,802
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$1,232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,168
• Taxable loss: −$592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $256,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $261,900 HARMLS