1342 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$74,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1968 $72/sqft · 12% above area Est $67k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Everything is updated in this charming home in the highly desirable Alonda Villa 55+ community! New flooring, new appliances, new light fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, new carpet in the bedrooms, new water heater, and new paint inside and out! Gaze out the floor to ceiling windows in the front room to enjoy the surrounding beautiful mature trees and lovely landscaping. Large shed for extra storage! Peaceful and idyllic this is a fantastic place to call home, yet still being centrally located. Close to shopping, dining, parks and trails, 5 min away from I-5, and close to schools and hospitals. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Built 1968
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $515 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $74k implies a 893% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $70,030 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.23%
• DSCR: 4.30
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,622
• List price: $74,500
• Delta: 11.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1519 Alonda Ln NE	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	8mo	$60,000	$52	74
1417 Alonda Ln NE	0.03mi	2/1.5	960 (-8%)	13mo	$65,000	$68	73
1350 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	7mo	$50,000	$43	73
4611 17th Ln NE #17	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+2%)	22mo	$142,500	$135	66
2005 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	23mo	$49,500	$52	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $71,764
• Equity at exit: $11,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.40×
• Total profit: $175,202
• Equity at exit: $6,441

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $222/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $1,290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $557

Max offer price $74,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	43d	1	0.26mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	43d	1	0.30mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,165	$2.46	13d	258	0.55mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	43d	1	0.64mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,106	$2.33	13d	26	0.71mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	13d	7	0.76mi
522 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	13d	6	0.82mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	13d	5	0.98mi
801 Lilly Rd NE Apt 123 Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	762	$1,700	$2.23	43d	1	1.04mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,010	$2.05	13d	14	1.12mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	21d	1	1.14mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	21d	1	1.14mi
501 Franz Anderson Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,598	$2.22	13d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,500 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,500 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $74,500 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $79,000
17. 2025-04-08
    listed $84,500 Active
18. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus $7,500
19. 2005-02-01
    listed $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $222 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 228.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$222
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable income: $15,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,635
• After-tax cash flow: $11,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+532.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $79,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $84,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-10 Sold (MLS) $7,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-01 Listed $12,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $222 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.