7812 E Magnolia St · Houston, TX 77012

$186,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1928 7,949 sqft lot Est $209k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION - LOCATION - Unique lot with back and front access. For your convenience, this property is available for drive-by viewings only. Please respect the tenant’s privacy and do not disturb them. The house is being sold as-is, where-is, with all dimensions provided as approximate. It is located in the desirable East End Revit area. To arrange a personalized showing, please give us a call.

Key facts

• East end revit area
• Unique lot
• 7,949 sq ft lot

Tags

• UNIQUE LOT
• BACK AND FRONT ACCESS
• EAST END REVIT AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1928; Block foundation; 2,067 living area
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Paved driveway; Storage; Shed(s); Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Oven
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Deady Middle (math 8% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 588 students, 96% FRL); Milby H S (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,107 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,210 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,767
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7201 Eden St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,986 (-4%)	11mo	$190,000	$96	56
7844 Ford St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	21mo	$189,000	$101	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,361
• Equity at exit: $35,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $49,730
• Equity at exit: $29,619

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77012

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,713/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $186,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $512	+0% $459	+5% $406	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $372	+0% $459	+5% $546	+10% $633
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $506	base $459	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7334 Texas St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,200	$1.23	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $186,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $186,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-21
    listed $186,000 Active
13. 1989-03-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,713 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,404 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$2,713
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable income: $2,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $4,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 16,780

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 35% Black 5% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.08%
• Current HPI: 274.5729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $186,000 HARMLS
• 1989-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,713 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.