115 Knotty Pine Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$145,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 252 Days on market

Built 2001 $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country lake living at its finest. Have you dreamed of living near the lake? This is it. Located just minutes from Lake Palestine you can have it all with this home. This HOA provides boat ramp access, community pool, picnic tables, playgrounds, and so much more! Nestled in the woods deep in Chandler you get both privacy and seclusion in the country! Only 20 minutes from Tyler! This home has beautiful pines, sits on 2 large lots, spacious parking and back yard. Inside this home boasts a brand new HVAC system with transferable warranty, new flooring throughout home, and a new ceiling plank type install in the kitchen area to make this home even more beautiful. Home has been well taken care of and is in excellent condition. This home also boasts a front porch, and 2 back porches, a storage facility outside, and gated back fence. Wait until you see the enormous master bathroom with walk in closet, with shower and soaking garden tub with double vanities. Make this your new home today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Picnic tables
• Playgrounds

Tags

• BOAT RAMP ACCESS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICNIC TABLES
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PRIVACY AND SECLUSION
• BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Wildewood
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $130

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (manufactured)
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Wood fencing; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Chandler Int (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 253 students, 70% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,264
• Equity at exit: $21,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,408
• Equity at exit: $12,580

Cash invested: $40,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$763
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,912/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $145,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,375
• Closing costs: $4,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   price $145,500
3. 2026-02-02
   listed $145,900 Active 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

   Country lake living at its finest. Have you dreamed of living near the lake? This is it. Located just minutes from Lake Palestine you can have it all with this home. This HOA provides boat ramp access, community pool, picnic tables, playgrounds, and so much more! Nestled in the woods deep in Chandler you get both privacy and seclusion in the country! Only 20 minutes from Tyler! This home has beautiful pines, sits on 2 large lots, spacious parking and back yard. Inside this home boasts a brand new HVAC system with transferable warranty, new flooring throughout home, and a new ceiling plank type install in the kitchen area to make this home even more beautiful. Home has been well taken care of and is in excellent condition. This home also boasts a front porch, and 2 back porches, a storage facility outside, and gated back fence. Wait until you see the enormous master bathroom with walk in closet, with shower and soaking garden tub with double vanities. Make this your new home today!

4. 2026-01-21
   status Active
5. 2026-01-09
   historical
6. 2026-01-07
   historical
7. 2025-11-16
   price $145,900
8. 2025-11-16
   price $145,900
9. 2025-11-16
   status Active
10. 2025-11-05
    status Active
11. 2025-11-05
    status Pending
12. 2025-11-05
    historical Active Contingent
13. 2025-09-01
    price $149,900
14. 2025-09-01
    price $149,900
15. 2025-08-11
    price $152,900
16. 2025-08-11
    price $152,900
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $155,900 Active
18. 2025-07-22
    price $155,900
19. 2025-07-09
    listed $157,900 Active
20. 2000-12-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,912 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,663 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$63/mo · 39.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,150
• − Property taxes: −$1,912
• − Insurance: −$728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$4,233
• Taxable income: $392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $145,500 GTAR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $145,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Delisted — GTAR
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $145,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $145,900 GTAR
• 2025-11-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — GTAR
• 2025-11-05 Pending — GTAR
• 2025-11-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $149,900 GTAR
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $152,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $152,900 GTAR
• 2025-08-07 Listed $155,900 GTAR
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $155,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $157,900 NTREIS
• 2000-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,912 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.