9536 Commerce Rd · Athens-Clarke County unified government (balance), GA 30607

$159,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1946

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this quaint country 2 Bedroom 1 Bath Cottage. This house features 2 bedrooms and 1 shared bath, plus an addition on the back for laundry/storage. The front porch is the perfect place to watch the cars go by and enjoy the country setting. The property is serviced by a private well. Close to Athens, but country living in Jackson County! This house is located just off Hwy 441 and approx. 8 miles from Piedmont Hospital in Athens. New roof in 2024, new paint and bathroom vanity in 2025. New range and refrigerator in 2026. Currently listed AS-IS. Seller is offering $3,000 in concessions towards additional updates or buyer closing costs. This property is being sold in conjunction with

Key facts

• Private well
• Country setting
• Front porch

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• PRIVATE WELL
• ADDITION FOR LAUNDRY STORAGE
• FRONT PORCH
• NEW ROOF
• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($884/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Athens-Clarke County unified government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Jackson Middle School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 544 students, 63% FRL); East Jackson Comprehensive High School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #155 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 1,343 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,011 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,295
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,742
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30607

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $119	+0% $74	+5% $28	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $21	+0% $74	+5% $126	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $114	base $74	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,999 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,999 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,999 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,999 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,999 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,999 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $159,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $1,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Athens-Clarke County unified government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Clarke County · 126,008 people
• City population: 119,110
• Metro: Athens-Clarke County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 10,700
• Household income: $65,361
• Rent vs Own: 30.0% rent · 70.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 175.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.54%
• Current HPI: 267.8527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Athens-Clarke County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $159,999 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.