37647 Newal Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1998 9,803 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare Opportunity – Well-Maintained Palm Harbor Home on a Double Lot with No HOA! Enjoy the freedom of owning both the land and the home with this beautifully maintained Palm Harbor manufactured home situated on an oversized 0.23-acre double lot. Offering 1,776 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this spacious home is thoughtfully designed with large walk-in closets in every bedroom, providing exceptional storage throughout. Major updates include a brand-new roof installed in 2025, giving buyers added peace of mind. Lovingly maintained and move-in ready, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, functionality, and flexibility. Step outside and you'l

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Double lot
• Inviting porch areas

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• AIR-CONDITIONED WORKSHOP
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• COVERED PARKING
• INVITING PORCH AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres; Living area about 1,776; Building area about 3,242; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Storage shed(s) and workshop; Oversized lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,894/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 831% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $239k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,368 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,605
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-54,494
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,196/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,839

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $111	+0% $43	+5% $-24	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-31	+0% $43	+5% $118	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $104	base $43	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	0.06mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	26d	1	0.08mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	26d	1	0.15mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	4d	1	0.17mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	22d	1	0.20mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	19d	1	0.34mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	0d	141	0.43mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	14d	1	0.46mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	26d	1	0.62mi
6722 Northlake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	2215	$2,450	$1.11	26d	1	0.78mi
36887 Highland Meadows Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	26d	1	0.85mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	26d	1	1.03mi
6766 Shelby Lynn Way Unit 1A Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2124	$2,800	$1.32	14d	1	1.04mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	26d	1	1.07mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	26d	1	1.10mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	26d	1	1.20mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	16d	1	1.20mi
36507 Camp Fire Ter Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,500	$1.63	26d	1	1.22mi
36420 Garden Wall Way Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2050	$2,450	$1.20	26d	1	1.31mi
36406 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	19d	1	1.33mi
36401 Camp Fire Ter Unit 36401 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	21d	1	1.33mi
36403 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1528	$2,200	$1.44	26d	1	1.33mi
37643 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,840	$1.19	23d	1	1.38mi
36352 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,950	$1.19	4d	1	1.38mi
37711 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	16d	1	1.38mi
4850 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	23d	1	1.40mi
37726 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,985	$1.21	23d	1	1.40mi
37714 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,855	$1.20	16d	1	1.40mi
6213 Back Forty Loop Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,395	$1.28	6d	1	1.46mi
36243 Lake Chase Blvd #203 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,775	$1.39	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $239,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 65.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,196
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $1,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1493.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-12 Sold (MLS) $108,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-11 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,196 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.