4202 Sierra Sunset · Abilene, TX 79606

$435,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2013 9,583 sqft lot Est $483k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Bonus room
• Backyard

Tags

• UTILITY ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• BACKYARD
• DECK
• PERGOLA
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed as Active Contingent / Active Under Contract; Buyers are contingent on the sale of their home; Washer and dryer excluded from sale
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA Loan, and 1031 Exchange
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2; Driveway; On-street parking; RV access/parking; Garage faces side with 2-car single door; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence (attached); Two-story
• Construction: Built in 2013; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks; Several bedrooms with walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Flat screen wiring; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Two living areas; One dining area; Total of 9 rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with sink; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $428k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West El (428 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,511/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $482,571
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4133 Sierra Sunset	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,466 (-6%)	8mo	$489,000	$198	81
4525 Vista Grande	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+0%)	7mo	$409,900	$155	81
4602 Vista Grande	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,626 (-0%)	8mo	$479,500	$183	76
4410 Sierra Sunset	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,884 (+9%)	6mo	$459,000	$159	69
8345 Ridge	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,300 (-13%)	0mo	$437,500	$190	67
4126 Sierra Sunset	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,261 (-14%)	11mo	$386,000	$171	64
8326 Cimarron Trl	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,390 (-9%)	6mo	$449,900	$188	64
8209 Cimarron Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,307 (-12%)	2mo	$435,000	$189	59
4617 High Sierra	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,309 (-12%)	3mo	$385,000	$167	58
8201 Cimarron Trl	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,364 (-10%)	5mo	$420,000	$178	57
101 Pedernales	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,505 (-5%)	1mo	$529,000	$211	56
8102 Thompson Pkwy	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,264 (-14%)	10mo	$350,000	$155	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-26,096
• Equity at exit: $64,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $112,843
• Equity at exit: $37,611

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$782 /mo · $9,384/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$947
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,107

Max offer price $435,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4426 Sierra Sunset Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2697	$4,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.20mi
4610 Sierra Sunset Abilene, TX	5.0	3.0	3302	$10,000	$3.03	43d	1	0.30mi
8345 South Rdg Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$4,000	$1.74	7d	1	0.35mi
7534 John Carroll Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,795	$1.41	3d	1	0.69mi
134 Pedernales Unit 136 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2798	$2,995	$1.07	20d	1	0.89mi
3626 Yamini Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,799	$1.57	20d	1	1.18mi
5280 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,095	$1.71	5d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $435,000 Active
4. 2025-03-19
   historical
5. 2024-09-19
   listed $425,000 Active
6. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus Closed 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

7. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

8. 2022-04-17
   status Pending 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

9. 2022-04-13
   status Active 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

10. 2022-04-08
    historical Active Option Contract 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

11. 2022-04-04
    listed $390,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautiful floor plan, this home features 4 bedrooms 3 baths. It offers utility room with cabinets and a sink. All new luxury vinyl flooring throughout.Fireplace mantel has been updated. There is a second floor room that could be used as second living room, game room or craft room. They added a deck & pergola in backyard. There is also a shed & RV parking. Master bedroom offers a large ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, large shower, linen closet and walk in closet.

12. 2020-04-13
    soldstatus
13. 2020-04-10
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2020-03-02
    status Pending
15. 2020-02-28
    historical Active Option Contract
16. 2020-02-28
    status Active
17. 2020-02-21
    historical Active Option Contract
18. 2020-02-20
    historical
19. 2019-08-27
    listed $290,000 Active
20. 2015-07-21
    soldstatus
21. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2015-06-16
    status Pending
23. 2015-06-06
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2015-05-16
    price $269,900
25. 2015-04-25
    listed $274,900 Active
26. 2013-12-01
    soldstatus
27. 2013-10-23
    historical
28. 2013-05-17
    listed $245,000
29. 2013-04-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,384 · $782/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,384 · $782/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$9,384
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,331
• − Management: −$4,331
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $4,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-04-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-04-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-04-04 Listed $390,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-02-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-02-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2020-02-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-02-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-08-27 Listed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2015-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-06-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-06-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-05-16 Price Changed $269,900 NTREIS
• 2015-04-25 Listed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2013-12-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-10-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-05-17 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2013-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,384 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.