1210 Third Ave · Picayune, MS 39466

$119,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1948 $65/sqft · 35% below area Est $182k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large covered front porch leads to Investor special with plenty of space and tons of potential. Excellent location within easy walking distance to schools and downtown activities. This one will need work and will not go FHA. Being sold as is.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 69 days

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,867
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -34.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 Third Ave	0.08mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,655 (-9%)	4mo	$179,999	$109	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $493
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $26,006
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,135/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $119,000 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Large covered front porch leads to Investor special with plenty of space and tons of potential. Excellent location within easy walking distance to schools and downtown activities. This one will need work and will not go FHA. Being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,135 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,135 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,135
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $3,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Picayune School District
• NCES district ID: 2803630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,446
• Composite: 27.17/100
• National rank: #7025
• State rank: #60 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picayune, MS
• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $119,000 PRCBOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,135 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.