1039 Brackish Pl · Gulf Park Estates, MS 39564

$329,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2019 0.26 ac lot Est $355k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction ready end of September. The Kaden plan features granite in the kitchen and the baths. A wide foyer welcomes you into a open floor plan. Three of the bedrooms are situated on one side of the house with the owners suite in the back of the home, Dual vanities and his and her closets along with a soaker tub and a 5 foot shower. Attention to detail is evident in the trey ceilings and stainless steel appliances. A farmhouse sink finishes out the kitchen. The 5 th bedroom is on the other side of the home with a bath across the hall. Home is smart home equipped. Pictures are not of subject property, this home will have light gray cabinets with a gray weathered barnboard floor.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dual vanities
• Granite in kitchen

Tags

• GRANITE IN KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• COVERED PATIO
• DECK
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $250; Association covers grounds maintenance and management

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces front with direct access; Concrete parking/driveway
• Security: Prewired for security; Dead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer and water connected; Fiber to the house; Smart home wiring; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready; Builder model: Kaden
• Construction: Vinyl, brick, and siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built and living area sourced from appraiser; Living area approximately 2,489 (source: appraiser)
• Exterior features: Privacy fenced yard; Front yard; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 143; Lot about 0.26 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specifically listed
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Soaking tub; Granite counters; His and hers closets; Walk-in closet(s); Low-flow plumbing fixtures; Dead bolt lock(s); Insulated windows with screens; Prewired security
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with indoor laundry hook-ups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-259/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#43 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Park Elementary (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #37 of 375 statewide, top 10%, 635 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs Middle School (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 967 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,614 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1027 Brackish Pl	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,542 (+1%)	5mo	$307,000	$121	92
6448 Chickory Way	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,460 (-2%)	2mo	$369,900	$150	83
124 Oyster Catcher Cv	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,516 (-0%)	5mo	$365,000	$145	72
6452 Chickory Way	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (-8%)	0mo	$337,700	$146	71
1079 Brackish Pl	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,304 (-9%)	7mo	$332,000	$144	67
125 Gannet Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,265 (-10%)	2mo	$319,000	$141	64
122 Gannet Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,265 (-10%)	3mo	$319,000	$141	64
6552 Sugarcane Cir	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,700 (+7%)	4mo	$347,500	$129	62
70 Saltmeadow Cir	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,338 (-7%)	2mo	$315,000	$135	59
2311 Shelby Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,698 (+7%)	5mo	$313,000	$116	46
2501 SW Shelby Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,350 (-7%)	4mo	$299,900	$128	45
208 Glen Eagles Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (-9%)	7mo	$320,000	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,323
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-71,238
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,683/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $326,083

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $72	+0% $-22	+5% $-115	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-126	+0% $-22	+5% $83	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $62	base $-22	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Tantallon Dr Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	1966	$2,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.14mi
6453 Chickory Way Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2516	$2,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.16mi
1070 Brackish Pl Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,500	$1.06	15d	1	0.19mi
1208 Carraway Cv Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	2486	$2,800	$1.13	15d	1	0.23mi
7709 Clamshell Ave Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,500	$0.86	15d	1	1.01mi
8001 Westwood Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1996	$2,850	$1.43	15d	1	1.01mi
1632 Emerald Lakes Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0–4.0	2.0	1585	$2,350	$1.48	15d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 523-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $329,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,683 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,683 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 42% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$2,683
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$5,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,437
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Park Estates

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #7955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+33.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $329,900 MLSU
• 2019-09-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-06-28 Listed $247,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+27.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,683 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.