187 Bristol Bend Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$524,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1996 8,489 sqft lot $191/sqft · 17% below area Est $629k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME to this outstanding David Weekley 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home!!Corner lot, stone front, immaculate & updated! New light fixtures, spacious walk in closets, master down, Berber carpet, 2'' blinds, oversized garage! FABULOUS wide plank flooring in both formals, entry, Den, kitchen & breakfast area! Covered arbor with ceiling fan, extensive patio decking, wrought iron fencing, storm door, sprinkler system.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered arbor
• Wooded corner lot

Tags

• WOODED CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED ARBOR
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• ACCESS TO AREA AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal utility district disclosure; Seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: WDLS TOWNSHIP

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by David Weekley
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Corner lot; Subdivision setting; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Double vanity; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Pantry; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $482k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $482,318 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $629,457
• List price: $524,900
• Delta: -16.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Bristol Bend Cir	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,923 (+6%)	3mo	$647,000	$221	82
70 Amberglow Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,607 (-5%)	0mo	$575,000	$221	77
50 E Greywing Cir	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,704 (-2%)	2mo	$495,000	$183	74
14 S Duskwood Pl	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,666 (-3%)	3mo	$565,000	$212	70
82 E Coldbrook Cir	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,611 (-5%)	1mo	$619,900	$237	66
55 Pinepath Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,523 (-8%)	1mo	$565,000	$224	65
46 Indian Summer Pl	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,631 (-4%)	1mo	$617,774	$235	63
23 Sparklewood Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,841 (+3%)	1mo	$649,999	$229	63
11 Dovewing Pl	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,882 (+5%)	0mo	$627,000	$218	61
47 S Bristol Oak Cir	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,980 (+8%)	3mo	$649,000	$218	57
26 Serene Creek Pl	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,570 (-7%)	2mo	$525,000	$204	52
175 W Bristol Oak Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,566 (-7%)	2mo	$575,000	$224	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-87,787
• Equity at exit: $78,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-101,912
• Equity at exit: $45,384

Cash invested: $146,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$753 /mo · $9,034/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,013
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,714

Max offer price $524,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,225
• Closing costs: $15,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	43d	1	0.67mi
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $524,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $524,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $524,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $524,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $524,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $524,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $524,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $524,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $524,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $524,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $524,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $524,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $524,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $524,900 Active 803-char remark
15. 2013-01-23
    soldstatus
16. 2013-01-22
    soldstatus Sold 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to this outstanding David Weekley 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home!!Corner lot, stone front, immaculate & updated! New light fixtures, spacious walk in closets, master down, Berber carpet, 2'' blinds, oversized garage! FABULOUS wide plank flooring in both formals, entry, Den, kitchen & breakfast area! Covered arbor with ceiling fan, extensive patio decking, wrought iron fencing, storm door, sprinkler system.

17. 2013-01-02
    status Pending 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to this outstanding David Weekley 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home!!Corner lot, stone front, immaculate & updated! New light fixtures, spacious walk in closets, master down, Berber carpet, 2'' blinds, oversized garage! FABULOUS wide plank flooring in both formals, entry, Den, kitchen & breakfast area! Covered arbor with ceiling fan, extensive patio decking, wrought iron fencing, storm door, sprinkler system.

18. 2012-12-27
    status Option Pending 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to this outstanding David Weekley 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home!!Corner lot, stone front, immaculate & updated! New light fixtures, spacious walk in closets, master down, Berber carpet, 2'' blinds, oversized garage! FABULOUS wide plank flooring in both formals, entry, Den, kitchen & breakfast area! Covered arbor with ceiling fan, extensive patio decking, wrought iron fencing, storm door, sprinkler system.

19. 2012-10-28
    listed $289,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to this outstanding David Weekley 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home!!Corner lot, stone front, immaculate & updated! New light fixtures, spacious walk in closets, master down, Berber carpet, 2'' blinds, oversized garage! FABULOUS wide plank flooring in both formals, entry, Den, kitchen & breakfast area! Covered arbor with ceiling fan, extensive patio decking, wrought iron fencing, storm door, sprinkler system.

20. 2011-09-30
    historical
21. 2011-09-19
    listed $275,000
22. 2011-09-15
    historical
23. 2011-06-08
    listed $265,000
24. 2011-06-08
    historical
25. 2011-02-16
    listed $274,500
26. 2009-06-26
    soldstatus
27. 2009-06-25
    soldstatus
28. 2009-05-27
    historical
29. 2009-04-13
    listed $300,000
30. 2004-09-28
    soldstatus
31. 2003-06-05
    soldstatus
32. 2002-09-12
    historical
33. 2002-05-30
    listed $219,900
34. 2001-06-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,034 · $753/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,606 · $800/mo
• Expected delta: +$571/yr (+$48/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,403
• − Property taxes: −$9,034
• − Insurance: −$2,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,630
• − Management: −$4,630
• − Depreciation: −$15,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $2,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+138.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $524,900 HARMLS
• 2013-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-01-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-10-28 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2011-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-09-19 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2011-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-06-08 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2011-02-16 Listed $274,500 HARMLS
• 2009-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-13 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2004-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-05-30 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2001-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,034 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.