1470 Vernon Cir · Jackson, MS 39204

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1974 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is vacant. Show anytime. Being sold as-is. Seller has never lived in the property. The property has been well maintained. Wood burning fireplace with blower insert. Gas grill on rear.

Key facts

• Gas grill on rear
• 0.43 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GAS GRILL ON REAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #332 of 375 statewide, top 88%, 463 students, 100% FRL); Provine High School (math 4% / reading 15%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 774 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,369/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8471% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Wingfield Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,797 (-3%)	11mo	$77,000	$43	74
2229 Scanlon Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,651 (-11%)	8mo	$94,900	$57	67
2064 Monaco St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-10%)	19mo	$84,700	$51	59
2232 Breckinridge Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-3%)	9mo	$85,000	$47	58
1215 Garden Park Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,957 (+6%)	16mo	$105,000	$54	58
1505 Vernon Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-13%)	19mo	$69,000	$43	57
2749 W Benwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+1%)	17mo	$121,999	$65	53
1726 Dianne Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,690 (-8%)	18mo	$42,000	$25	46
1435 Brinoy Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-5%)	12mo	$78,000	$44	46
1732 Southhaven Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (-9%)	8mo	$62,500	$37	45
1643 Maria Dr Dr	0.51mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,056 (+11%)	14mo	$87,000	$42	38
1601 Raymond Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,044 (+11%)	12mo	$46,600	$23	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $88,250
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.20×
• Total profit: $272,032
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,408/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Wingfield Ct Unit NA Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,650	$0.92	23d	1	0.28mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	23d	1	0.51mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	0.51mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	23d	1	0.51mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	0.51mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	14d	1	0.51mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	23d	1	0.59mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	0.68mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	0.75mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	0.75mi
1641 Woodburn St Jackson, MS	5.0	2.0	1300	$1,812	$1.39	14d	1	0.94mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	14d	1	0.95mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	14d	1	0.98mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	1.01mi
1848 Willaneel Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,100	$0.68	14d	1	1.07mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	1.13mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	23d	1	1.13mi
2010 Chadwick Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,145	$0.90	44d	1	1.16mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	23d	1	1.16mi
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	44d	1	1.20mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	1.24mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	44d	1	1.32mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	44d	1	1.40mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	14d	1	1.41mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	44d	1	1.41mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	14d	1	1.43mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-10-09
   historical $1,575
2. 2025-08-01
   listed $1,575
3. 2025-05-18
   status Pending
4. 2025-05-09
   price $135,000
5. 2024-10-15
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 2023-11-28
   soldstatus
7. 1993-11-05
   soldstatus
8. 1974-09-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,408 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,408 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,408
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,575 MLSU
• 2025-08-01 Listed for Rent $1,575 MLSU
• 2025-05-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2024-10-15 Listed $149,900 MLSU
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1974-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+28.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,408 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.