4401 Crystal Lake Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31217

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1963 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac street. Inside, the open kitchen layout flows into the main living spaces. Relax on the screened patio overlooking a serene, private backyard, complete with a peaceful lily pad lake backdrop. Homes at this price point are hard to find, making this a wonderful opportunity for buyers looking for value and potential.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Private backyard
• Open kitchen layout

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• SCREENED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• LILY PAD LAKE BACKDROP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition roof; Built with residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio with screened area; Fenced yard; Waterfront lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas range; Refrigerator; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $130k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4361 N Franklinton Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-0%)	18mo	$169,900	$113	74
3696 Kings Park Cir	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-11%)	21mo	$75,000	$56	33
3878 Hitchcock Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+13%)	22mo	$90,000	$53	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.31% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $46,248
• Equity at exit: $68,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $147,689
• Equity at exit: $113,652

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31217

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $258	+0% $221	+5% $184	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $167	+0% $221	+5% $275	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $254	base $221	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3938 Kings Park Cir Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	14d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 New 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 New 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 New 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 New 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 New 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $130,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac street. Inside, the open kitchen layout flows into the main living spaces. Relax on the screened patio overlooking a serene, private backyard, complete with a peaceful lily pad lake backdrop. Homes at this price point are hard to find, making this a wonderful opportunity for buyers looking for value and potential.

18. 2026-05-19
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2026-05-18
    listed $130,000 New 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac street. Inside, the open kitchen layout flows into the main living spaces. Relax on the screened patio overlooking a serene, private backyard, complete with a peaceful lily pad lake backdrop. Homes at this price point are hard to find, making this a wonderful opportunity for buyers looking for value and potential.

20. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus $72,900
21. 2022-01-14
    soldstatus $72,900
22. 2021-11-16
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$142
• After-tax cash flow: $2,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,732
• Household income: $44,809
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 38% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Current HPI: 209.9166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.85%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+62.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $130,000 CGMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $130,000 MGMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $130,000 GAMLS
• 2022-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records
• 2022-01-14 Sold (MLS) $72,900 MGMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listed $79,900 MGMLS

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.