108 Comanche Trl · Shawneeland, VA 22602

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $286k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Private bath

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE DECK
• TREE-LINED YARD
• PRIVATE BATH
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water from private well; On-site septic; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout (main-level living)
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Detached property; Shed on the property; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with built-in microwave, stove, dishwasher, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator; Living room; Dining room; Laundry area with hookups; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Shawneeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#359 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,696
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Dakota Trl	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,029 (+0%)	8mo	$290,000	$282	81
117 Buffalo Trl	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	14mo	$290,000	$279	69
803 Tomahawk Trl	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (-6%)	1mo	$246,000	$256	64
109 Gannentaha Trl	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-2%)	23mo	$277,500	$275	55
136 Dakota Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+9%)	15mo	$320,000	$286	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,745
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,895
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22602

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    status Active
18. 2026-03-24
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-09
    price $179,900
20. 2026-03-08
    status Active
21. 2025-10-31
    status Pending
22. 2025-10-27
    price $169,900
23. 2025-10-03
    listed $189,900 Active
24. 2025-03-24
    historical
25. 2025-02-11
    price $200,000
26. 2024-11-14
    listed $216,000 Active
27. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $203,000
28. 2022-04-21
    soldstatus $216,000 Closed 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

29. 2022-04-18
    listed Active Under Contract 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

30. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus $216,000 Closed 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

31. 2022-03-08
    historical Active Under Contract 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

32. 2022-03-04
    listed $210,000 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Cute home, perfect starter or downsize! Nice yard with plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Freshly painted. Ready for you to make it your own.

33. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $129,000
34. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $129,000 Sold
35. 2017-08-29
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
36. 2017-08-12
    listed $129,900 Active
37. 2010-07-07
    historical Temporarily Off-Market
38. 2010-07-07
    historical
39. 2010-04-21
    listed Active
40. 2010-04-21
    listed $99,900
41. 2009-10-01
    soldstatus $50,000
42. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $50,000
43. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $50,000
44. 2009-09-28
    listed $50,000
45. 2009-09-28
    historical
46. 2009-09-28
    listed $50,000
47. 2009-09-28
    historical
48. 2004-09-03
    soldstatus $125,000
49. 2004-09-02
    soldstatus $125,000
50. 2004-07-19
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$545/yr (+$45/mo · 58.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $3,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shawneeland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #14402

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawneeland, VA
• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 32,840
• Household income: $101,398
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 294.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.39%
• Current HPI: 209.8801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.55%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+38.5% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $216,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $203,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-21 Sold (MLS) $216,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-18 Listed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-07 Sold (MLS) $216,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-04 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) $129,000 MRIS
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-29 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-08-12 Listed $129,900 MRIS
• 2010-07-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-07-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-04-21 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-09-28 Listed $50,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-28 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-02 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MRIS
• 2004-07-19 Listed $129,900 MRIS
• 2004-07-19 Delisted — MRIS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · -34.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.