5665 Chances Creek Rd · Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1955 1.37 ac lot Est $231k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this Blue Ridge Mountain Mini Farm! Great location within minutes of the scenic Blue Ridge Parkway and I-77. This lovingly maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home features hardwood flooring in the living room and under the carpet in both bedrooms. Enjoy one level living with oil heat, gas logs, central a/c and basement with lots of built in shelving. Perfect for your crafts, hobbies or storage! Has over 530 feet of decking for relaxing or entertaining. Set on 1.37 acres with paved driveway, 50 amp RV hookup and a creek running along the full length of the property. Second creek runs along the lower side of the acreage. Hooked up to county water and also has a well on the property. Perfect for a mini farm with chicken coop and pen already set up. Nice site for camper or small cabin at the top of property. Easy commute to Hillsville, Galax and NC! Don't miss this charming country home in a convenient location! FEMA Map shows Zone X.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• 1.37 acres
• Built in shelving

Tags

• BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN MINI FARM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• OVER 530 FEET OF DECKING
• 1.37 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water available, private water available, and well; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family, detached residence; One level (1 story)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Stream on the property; Waterfront lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Propane heating; Oil heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Storm windows; Gas log fireplace in the living room; Basement with concrete floor and sump pump; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fancy Gap Elementary (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 127 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $175k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,424
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6196 Chances Creek Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	996 (+10%)	15mo	$255,000	$256	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $31,690
• Equity at exit: $77,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $97,637
• Equity at exit: $117,763

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24328

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    listed $174,900 Active
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $174,900 Active 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    Check out this Blue Ridge Mountain Mini Farm! Great location within minutes of the scenic Blue Ridge Parkway and I-77. This lovingly maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home features hardwood flooring in the living room and under the carpet in both bedrooms. Enjoy one level living with oil heat, gas logs, central a/c and basement with lots of built in shelving. Perfect for your crafts, hobbies or storage! Has over 530 feet of decking for relaxing or entertaining. Set on 1.37 acres with paved driveway, 50 amp RV hookup and a creek running along the full length of the property. Second creek runs along the lower side of the acreage. Hooked up to county water and also has a well on the property. Perfect for a mini farm with chicken coop and pen already set up. Nice site for camper or small cabin at the top of property. Easy commute to Hillsville, Galax and NC! Don't miss this charming country home in a convenient location! FEMA Map shows Zone X.

18. 2018-10-31
    soldstatus $55,000 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Very nice 2 bed 1 bath house with a huge wrap around porch! The house sits on 1.12 acres with a stream to the back of the property which flows the hole distance of the property. Both bedrooms are spacious! The property is in a great location being only approximately 3 mins to I-77! COME TAKE A LOOK! Seller is still in the process of cleaning out items from the home. Large out building does not convey.

19. 2018-07-18
    listed $59,900 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Very nice 2 bed 1 bath house with a huge wrap around porch! The house sits on 1.12 acres with a stream to the back of the property which flows the hole distance of the property. Both bedrooms are spacious! The property is in a great location being only approximately 3 mins to I-77! COME TAKE A LOOK! Seller is still in the process of cleaning out items from the home. Large out building does not convey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$841/yr (+$70/mo · 141.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fancy Gap

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #23081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 168.5656
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+192.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $174,900 NRVMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $174,900 SWVAR
• 2018-10-31 Sold (MLS) $55,000 SWVAR
• 2018-07-18 Listed $59,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +37.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.