11720 Thousand Trails Road Reserve Unit Townhouse E-147 · Conroe, TX 77318

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 155 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Reserve at Lake Conroe, an active and vibrant community, where your dream home awaits. We are excited to offer a brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in/near Willis, this property offers the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, top of the line finishes, and natural lighting. The kitchen is beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a front porch, private backyard oasis, covered patio, and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space. Located in the desirable Lake Conroe, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool and hot tub, fitness center, clubhouse, walking trails, playgrounds, tennis courts, lakeside pavilion, marina with dock and lake access, and sandy beach. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watch your vision take shape. Contact us tod

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.47%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,231
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $28,871
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11114 N Lake Mist Ln Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,799	$1.37	12d	1	0.95mi
11700 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	2.0	809	$1,195	$1.48	5d	6	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-02-27
    status Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to The Reserve at Lake Conroe, an active and vibrant community, where your dream home awaits. We are excited to offer a brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in/near Willis, this property offers the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, top of the line finishes, and natural lighting. The kitchen is beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a front porch, private backyard oasis, covered patio, and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space. Located in the desirable Lake Conroe, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool and hot tub, fitness center, clubhouse, walking trails, playgrounds, tennis courts, lakeside pavilion, marina with dock and lake access, and sandy beach. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watch your vision take shape. Contact us tod

15. 2026-02-26
    historical 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to The Reserve at Lake Conroe, an active and vibrant community, where your dream home awaits. We are excited to offer a brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in/near Willis, this property offers the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, top of the line finishes, and natural lighting. The kitchen is beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a front porch, private backyard oasis, covered patio, and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space. Located in the desirable Lake Conroe, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool and hot tub, fitness center, clubhouse, walking trails, playgrounds, tennis courts, lakeside pavilion, marina with dock and lake access, and sandy beach. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watch your vision take shape. Contact us tod

16. 2026-01-14
    listed $144,900 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to The Reserve at Lake Conroe, an active and vibrant community, where your dream home awaits. We are excited to offer a brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in/near Willis, this property offers the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, top of the line finishes, and natural lighting. The kitchen is beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a front porch, private backyard oasis, covered patio, and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space. Located in the desirable Lake Conroe, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool and hot tub, fitness center, clubhouse, walking trails, playgrounds, tennis courts, lakeside pavilion, marina with dock and lake access, and sandy beach. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watch your vision take shape. Contact us tod

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $4,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,116
• After-tax cash flow: $5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new, 2026 manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan, top-of-the-line finishes, and is located in a vibrant community. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Listed $144,900 Zillow