The Providence Plan · Bartow, FL 33830

$1

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,241 sqft · SingleFamily · 323 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sand Lake Groves is a brand new community in Bartow, FL, strategically positioned at the intersection of State Road 60 and Gandy Cemetery Rd. Downtown Bartow is nearby and provides a charming backdrop for boutique shopping, diverse dining options, and cultural indulgences. With its prime location and proximity to local amenities, Sand Lake Groves offers residents the perfect blend of modern comforts and natural allure in the heart of Bartow. No CDD!

Key facts

• Brand new community
• Modern comforts
• Prime location

Tags

• BRAND NEW COMMUNITY
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• MODERN COMFORTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 parking spaces (2-car garage total)
• Home design: New construction plan; Listed as: The Providence
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,241

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model: The Providence

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 204809.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 1941587.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 6934217.95%
• DSCR: 308534.68
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 366092.42×
• Total profit: $102,506
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 784756.15×
• Total profit: $219,731
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 386

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $1,618

Break-even live

Break-even rent —

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 16%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Grove Dr Bartow, FL	2.0	1.5	728	$1,400	$1.92	3d	1	0.40mi
1707 Valencia Blvd Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,831	$1.53	3d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 305 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $20,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,955
• After-tax cash flow: $14,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bartow

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #9835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bartow, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B