191 Sylvan Lake Rd #16 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$68,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 203 Days on market

Built 1940 Good condition $86/sqft · 13% above area Est $60k · 13% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

Key facts

• Adjoining sunroom
• Large inviting deck
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• LARGE INVITING DECK
• ADJOINING SUNROOM
• MOUNTAIN AND WOODED VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.88%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,369
• List price: $68,500
• Delta: 13.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $52,938
• Equity at exit: $10,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.71×
• Total profit: $128,636
• Equity at exit: $5,923

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $1,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $599

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,052	-5% $1,029	+0% $1,005	+5% $981	+10% $958
Rent	-10% $857	-5% $931	+0% $1,005	+5% $1,079	+10% $1,153
Rate	-1.0pp $1,040	-0.5pp $1,022	base $1,005	+0.5pp $987	+1.0pp $969

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	44d	3	0.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,500 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,500 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,500 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,500 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,500 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,500 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,500 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,500 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,500 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,500 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,500 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,500 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,500 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,500 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    status Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

16. 2025-10-01
    status Pending 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

17. 2025-09-17
    price $68,500 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

18. 2025-06-13
    price $72,500 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

19. 2025-05-13
    listed $79,000 Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Motivated seller looking to make a deal before November 1! Come check out this fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage (May 1- November 1). Enter into a large and inviting deck and adjoining sunroom with relaxing mountain and wooded views. Continue to the interior of the home which boasts an open concept living room/kitchen with breakfast nook, updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. Unit features include modern fixtures, a bonus office space, and a mini-split system for AC/heat. oversized interior windows flood the space with natural light. A generous sized bathroom with full size tub and oversized bedroom completes the space. The View Hill community offers beautiful grounds, a pool, a volleyball area, a clubhouse with a pool table, playground, and 11 acres of serene landscape. Find your weekend/summer escape and make an offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $11,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,799
• After-tax cash flow: $9,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished 1-bed, 1-bath seasonal cottage is in good condition with a good curb appeal. It offers a spacious deck and sunroom with mountain and wooded views. The interior is well-maintained with updated kitchen cabinets and vinyl plank flooring. The property is ready for a motivated buyer looking to make a deal before November 1.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor cushions — Improves comfort and extends furniture life

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor cushions — Improves comfort and extends furniture life ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $68,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $72,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Listed $79,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid