15268 San Jose · Victorville, CA 92394

$330,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1989 8,500 sqft lot Est $455k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots Of Extras In This Victorville Home. All Tile Kitchen W/ Breakfast Nook, Enclosed Patio W/ Spa. Fully Landscapedtriple Car Garage W/ Drive Thru To Rear. 4 Bedrooms, 3 Baths, 1 Bedroom Downstairs.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Great bones
• Endless potential

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• GREAT BONES
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size sourced from assessor; Parcel number available
• HOA & community: Curbs; Biking; Street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3 garage spaces; Driveway; Total 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: House; 2 stories; Entry level 1
• Construction: Tile roof; Built year per assessor; No common walls; Single-unit property
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Has patio; No pool; Paved roads; Has view; Lot features: 0-1 unit/acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level; Entry on level 1
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Bathrooms with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating; Fireplace heating
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Two levels; Living room fireplace; Repairs cosmetic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $330k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→5/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,557 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $455,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15151 Desert Oak	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,831 (-4%)	0mo	$455,000	$248	77
15376 San Miguel Way	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,019 (+6%)	5mo	$427,000	$211	75
15168 Dakota	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,730 (-9%)	1mo	$360,000	$208	74
15576 War Arrow	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,809 (-5%)	1mo	$432,000	$239	68
15587 Great Spirit St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,963 (+4%)	2mo	$420,000	$214	65
15208 Indian Springs Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (-4%)	1mo	$430,000	$235	61
15021-15021 Highlander	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,767 (-7%)	8mo	$435,000	$246	58
15413 Burwood Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-5%)	3mo	$485,000	$268	58
15536 Jojoba	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,648 (-13%)	2mo	$310,000	$188	54
14747 Saguaro St	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,648 (-13%)	6mo	$395,000	$240	52
15488 Jojoba Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,648 (-13%)	8mo	$415,000	$252	50
15400 Don Roberto Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,752 (-8%)	8mo	$435,000	$248	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-35,770
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $22,334
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92394

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,222/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14929 Flagstaff Ct Victorville, CA	4.0	3.0	2019	$2,350	$1.16	1d	1	0.26mi
15191 Wildrose St Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	10d	1	0.38mi
14861 Ann Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	3.0	1657	$2,395	$1.45	1d	1	0.68mi
14600 Rosemary Dr Victorville, CA	4.0	2.5	2334	$3,000	$1.29	10d	1	0.80mi
14304 Gray Fox Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,600	$1.45	15d	1	1.00mi
15083 Brown Ln Victorville, CA	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,150	$1.17	1d	1	1.00mi
15112 Brown Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$850	$0.61	1d	1	1.04mi
15338 Baxter St Victorville, CA	5.0	3.5	2460	$2,800	$1.14	10d	1	1.16mi
14979 Buckskin Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,250	$1.76	1d	1	1.16mi
14373 Lorado Way Victorville, CA	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,900	$1.56	1d	1	1.19mi
14610 Green River Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,595	$1.74	1d	1	1.20mi
14073 Mare Ln Victorville, CA	4.0	2.5	1954	$2,290	$1.17	1d	1	1.24mi
16315 Orick Ave Victorville, CA	4.0	2.5	1977	$3,300	$1.67	1d	1	1.34mi
13998 Old Mill Ln Victorville, CA	4.0	2.0	2001	$2,850	$1.42	1d	1	1.34mi
15558 Del Rey Dr Victorville, CA	4.0	3.0	1905	$2,300	$1.21	1d	1	1.43mi
16413 Solvang Ave Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 601-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $330,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,222 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥100°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,222
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,645
• − Management: −$2,645
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$4,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,614
• Household income: $78,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1485.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 24% Black 20% White 15% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Current HPI: 384.3185
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.46%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $330,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-09 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,222 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.