Cavco Reflection Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$16,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home for sale in Pioneer Acres, Louisville, KY. This single-wide home offers approximately 924 sq ft of living space with a practical layout, spacious living area, and comfortable bedrooms. The functional kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, while large windows bring in natural light. Located in an established manufactured home community with easy access to shopping, dining, and major roads, this home is a great opportunity for affordable homeownership in Louisville.

Key facts

• Listed 165 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Plan name: Cavco Reflection; Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $16,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-plan property (Cavco Reflection)
• Construction: Living area about 924 (listed)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling system (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: Plan home (Cavco Reflection)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $17k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.4% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $117 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $507 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,872 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 210.98%
• DSCR: 10.39
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.02×
• Total profit: $47,402
• Equity at exit: $2,520

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.79×
• Total profit: $98,378
• Equity at exit: $1,461

Cash invested: $4,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $148

Max offer price $16,900

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $838	+0% $832	+5% $826	+10% $820
Rent	-10% $737	-5% $785	+0% $832	+5% $879	+10% $927
Rate	-1.0pp $840	-0.5pp $836	base $832	+0.5pp $828	+1.0pp $823

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,225
• Closing costs: $507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3700 Oboe Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	15d	1	0.46mi
3401 Shanks Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,079	$1.23	2d	3	0.69mi
4203 Searcy Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	16d	1	0.98mi
4406 Clarene Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	16d	1	0.99mi
3508 Fern Lea Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$912	$1.14	16d	3	1.06mi
3222 Patricia Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,590	$1.70	2d	1	1.18mi
3521 Janell Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	16d	1	1.25mi
3521 Janell Rd #1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
3520 Park Row Dr #1 Shively, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	24d	1	1.27mi
4414 Tara Gale Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,450	$1.45	3d	1	1.32mi
3107 Melody Acres Ln Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	17d	1	1.47mi
3204 Melody Acres Ln Unit 3202-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $16,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $16,900 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $16,900 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $16,900 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $16,900 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $16,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $16,900 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $16,900 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $16,900 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $16,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $16,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $16,900 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $16,900 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$947
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$84
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$492
• Taxable income: $10,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $7,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B