609 Adamston Rd · Toms River, NJ 08723

$449,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1957 9,147 sqft lot Est $474k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pretty as a picture; Very convenient location. This home has everything you need: Good size living room; inviting dining room; pretty kitchen; 1.5 baths; 3 nice size bedrooms & garage Private & fenced backyard with wrap around deck. Circular driveway, a must see.

Key facts

• Built ins
• Granite countertops
• Patio

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT INS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath and 1 half bath (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Attic fan; Blinds/shades; Light fixtures; Screens; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Brick Township Public School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #330 of 472 in NJ (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,152/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $450k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $449,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.78%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $473,625
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Baywood Blvd	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-10%)	1mo	$438,750	$433	66
280 Leswing Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-9%)	6mo	$420,000	$412	64
323 Church Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	988 (-12%)	5mo	$405,000	$410	59
72 Baywood Blvd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,079 (-4%)	2mo	$436,000	$404	58
251 Huppert Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-8%)	7mo	$455,000	$438	58
48 Birch Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-11%)	2mo	$421,000	$421	54
84 Woodland Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,186 (+5%)	3mo	$436,000	$368	54
22 Homestead Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+5%)	9mo	$435,000	$367	53
300 Bellanca Rd	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,218 (+8%)	6mo	$525,000	$431	52
553 Kingfisher Cir	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+8%)	5mo	$505,000	$414	50
63 Willetta Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-9%)	9mo	$429,000	$421	47
52 Burlington Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-15%)	6mo	$420,000	$438	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,508
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $77,772
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08723

• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,963/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,082
• Net cashflow: $1,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,853

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
58 E Lagoona Dr Brick, NJ	4.0	2.0	1483	$11,000	$7.42	1d	1	1.29mi
53 E Coral Dr Brick, NJ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $449,900 Active
3. 2017-11-14
   soldstatus $215,000
4. 2017-11-03
   soldstatus $215,000 Sold 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Pretty as a picture; Very convenient location. This home has everything you need: Good size living room; inviting dining room; pretty kitchen; 1.5 baths; 3 nice size bedrooms & garage Private & fenced backyard with wrap around deck. Circular driveway, a must see.

5. 2017-09-01
   status Pending 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Pretty as a picture; Very convenient location. This home has everything you need: Good size living room; inviting dining room; pretty kitchen; 1.5 baths; 3 nice size bedrooms & garage Private & fenced backyard with wrap around deck. Circular driveway, a must see.

6. 2017-08-25
   listed $223,000 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Pretty as a picture; Very convenient location. This home has everything you need: Good size living room; inviting dining room; pretty kitchen; 1.5 baths; 3 nice size bedrooms & garage Private & fenced backyard with wrap around deck. Circular driveway, a must see.

7. 2011-11-19
   listed $214,900
8. 1999-07-29
   soldstatus $100,000
9. 1999-06-18
   soldstatus $100,000
10. 1999-05-30
    historical
11. 1998-12-22
    listed $104,900
12. 1978-03-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,963 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,583 · $715/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,620/yr (+$218/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$5,963
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,946
• − Management: −$4,946
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable income: $5,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $11,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brick Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402220
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,717
• Composite: 28.31/100
• National rank: #6785
• State rank: #330 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 32,141
• Household income: $108,643
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.38%
• Current HPI: 350.5719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1305.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $449,900 MOMLS
• 2017-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-03 Sold (MLS) $215,000 MOMLS
• 2017-09-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-08-25 Listed $223,000 MOMLS
• 2011-11-19 Listed $214,900 MOMLS
• 1999-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-18 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MOMLS
• 1999-05-30 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-12-22 Listed $104,900 MOMLS
• 1978-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,963 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.