Residence 3 Plan · French Valley, CA 92596

$573,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 504 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 503 days

🏗️ New construction. The $573,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $612,287.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $574k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 504 days — a 12% lower offer ($505k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $355,963 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 504 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $612,287
• List price: $573,990
• Delta: -6.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35078 Waimea	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,217 (+7%)	2mo	$628,000	$283	81
34701 Portarosa St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,945 (-6%)	2mo	$640,000	$329	68
31855 McCartney Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,134 (+3%)	3mo	$615,000	$288	64
31132 Petal	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,027 (-2%)	1mo	$620,000	$306	64
34923 Kooden Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,320 (+12%)	1mo	$605,000	$261	58
34515 Velvetleaf	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,027 (-2%)	2mo	$710,000	$350	58
31363 Mccartney Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,345 (+13%)	0mo	$610,000	$260	52
30770 Prairie Sun Way	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,214 (+6%)	1mo	$650,000	$294	50
30778 Dropseed	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,214 (+6%)	2mo	$706,500	$319	50
31082 Branches Cir	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,293 (+10%)	1mo	$720,000	$314	48
35330 Mayapple Ct	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,339 (+12%)	2mo	$755,000	$323	46
31686 Leather Wood	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,356 (+13%)	1mo	$735,000	$312	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $232,695
• Equity at exit: $551,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $737,763
• Equity at exit: $1,189,539

Cash invested: $171,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,211
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$765 /mo · $9,184/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $-1,419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,356

Max offer price $406,916

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,072
• Closing costs: $18,369
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	21d	1	0.03mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	16d	1	0.06mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	1d	1	0.30mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	1d	1	0.74mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	24d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	17d	1	0.96mi
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	43d	1	1.04mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	17d	1	1.17mi
36308 Cosimo Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,695	$1.74	19d	1	1.25mi
30360 Laviste Ct Murrieta, CA	5.0	4.0	2772	$3,950	$1.42	43d	1	1.36mi
35808 Chalet Ct Murrieta, CA	5.0	2.5	2718	$3,500	$1.29	12d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $573,990 Active 504 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $573,990 Active 503 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $573,990 Active 502 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   status Active 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

5. 2026-03-03
   historical 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

6. 2025-06-29
   price $573,990 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

7. 2025-06-07
   price $570,190 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

8. 2025-05-17
   price $579,990 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

9. 2025-05-03
   price $581,690 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

10. 2025-04-24
    price $594,290 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

11. 2025-04-05
    price $567,990 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

12. 2025-02-15
    price $588,790 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

13. 2025-02-08
    price $587,990 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

14. 2025-01-11
    price $571,990 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

15. 2024-12-27
    price $553,990 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

16. 2024-12-13
    price $542,190 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

17. 2024-11-22
    price $552,790 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

18. 2024-11-04
    listed $544,190 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with a convenient bedroom tucked away off the foyer. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-like atmosphere and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,298
• − Property taxes: −$9,184
• − Insurance: −$3,061
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,417
• − Management: −$3,417
• − Depreciation: −$17,812
• Taxable loss: −$28,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $573,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $570,190 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $579,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $581,690 Zillow
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $594,290 Zillow
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $567,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $588,790 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $587,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $571,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $553,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $542,190 Zillow
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $552,790 Zillow
• 2024-11-04 Listed $544,190 Zillow