403 Bermuda St · Princeton, TX 75407

$124,799

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $157k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 119 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 403 Bermuda St, Princeton, TX 75407; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $124,799

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home from The Estates plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,584

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $863 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,567 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.27%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,816
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Bluegrass Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-4%)	5mo	$149,900	$99	78
125 Ravenna	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+5%)	9mo	$85,000	$51	76
9644 County Road 744	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	1mo	$299,500	$191	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,512
• Equity at exit: $18,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $45,157
• Equity at exit: $10,790

Cash invested: $34,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$654
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,872/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $124,799

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,200
• Closing costs: $3,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Spurgeon St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,599	$0.99	15d	1	0.12mi
2768 Poppy Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,550	$1.15	43d	1	0.88mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,332	$1.50	1d	54	1.32mi
2203 Heatwave Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,080	$0.98	21d	1	1.32mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	12d	1	1.33mi
315 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,100	$1.34	43d	1	1.36mi
303 Stone Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,700	$1.07	24d	1	1.37mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	7d	1	1.38mi
2230 Currents Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,099	$1.14	43d	1	1.43mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	11d	1	1.44mi
229 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,650	$1.06	24d	1	1.47mi
203 Marsh Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,575	$0.99	7d	1	1.48mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,799 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,991
• − Property taxes: −$1,872
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$3,631
• Taxable income: $6,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,479
• After-tax cash flow: $6,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B