531 W Kalmia Dr #5 · Lake Park, FL 33403

$224,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 824 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 $724/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing Waterfront Access and views from this Hidden Gem of a 2 bed / 2 bath condo. ICW Access from a dedicated boat dock, perfect for small vessels, paddleboarding, kayaking ect. Features include an enclosed patio with access from the Living Room & Master bedroom. Water views from living room & bedrooms, wood throughout. Updated kitchen and bath. Washer and dryer in unit. Water is included in the rent. 1 Parking spot + guest parking, Tenant occupied until 7/31/2026

Key facts

• Water views
• Dedicated boat dock
• Icw access

Tags

• WATERFRONT ACCESS
• ICW ACCESS
• DEDICATED BOAT DOCK
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• WATER VIEWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Waterfront property with Intracoastal access
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $724; Association covers common area maintenance, structure maintenance, and water; Community boat dock

Exterior

• Parking: One designated parking space
• Utilities: Water service included in association fee; Has cooling; Has heating
• Home design: 2-story building; Attached property; Has a view; Entry on level 1; Effective year built
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Patio; Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $225k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#542 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,560/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 903% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $225k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,803
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $88,206
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33403

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,764/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$724
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,009

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Southwind Ct Unit 8 North Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,900	$2.64	24d	1	0.17mi
624 Southwind Cir #2 North Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	718	$3,750	$5.22	24d	1	0.32mi
526 Eastwind Dr Unit 526 North Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$3,995	$4.76	24d	1	0.63mi
522 Eastwind Dr North Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$3,995	$4.21	24d	1	0.63mi
524 Eastwind Dr Unit 524 North Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	774	$3,995	$5.16	24d	1	0.63mi
2545 Conroy Dr West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$3,295	$3.09	24d	1	0.64mi
913 Lake Shore Dr Lake Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$3,731	$3.50	2d	9	0.83mi
901 W 37th St Riviera Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$2,895	$3.22	24d	1	1.00mi
913 Lighthouse Dr North Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1092	$5,900	$5.40	24d	1	1.04mi
220 Lake Shore Dr Lake Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.5	1575	$14,498	$9.20	5d	18	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $724 · $8,688/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 474-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,764 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,764 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,764
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,418
• − Management: −$3,418
• − HOA: −$8,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $2,373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$570
• After-tax cash flow: $4,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #10167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Park, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 14,370
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,370
• Household income: $70,646
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 903.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 15% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 17% Spanish 12% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.30%
• Current HPI: 461.4045
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.97%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+336.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $224,900 MARMLS
• 2023-07-07 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2019-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,764 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.