2598 Thunderbird Dr #22 · Thousand Oaks, CA 91362

$439,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 1976 5,208 sqft lot $252/sqft · 41% above area Est $310k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this immaculate, spacious 2+2+bonus TRIPLEWIDE in a highly desirable retirement/55+ community, at the heart of Thousand Oaks, across from the Civic Arts Plaza and The Lakes. Beautifully remodeled throughout, generous kitchen boasts real wood cabinets, newer appliances. Wet bar in living room, close to large front porch, great for entertaining, relaxing, or to watch beautiful sunrises. Primary suite has an extra large bathroom. Elegantly landscaped with auto-sprinklers. Covered parking for 2 cars side-by-side! Separate laundry room. Amenities include the clubhouse, pool (heated Spring thru early-Nov.) jacuzzi (always heated), covered pickleball court, community events and much more! ''In Lieu Tax'' less than $75/yr (no property tax!) Rent controlled, senior overlay.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Wet bar
• Large front porch

Tags

• REMODELED
• REAL WOOD CABINETS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• WET BAR
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $399k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.8% in Thousand Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#226 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Conejo Valley Unified (urban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,341
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: 41.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Apache Cir #102	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,760 (+1%)	18mo	$275,000	$156	80
2569 Thunderbird Dr #112	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,626 (-7%)	21mo	$499,000	$307	71
141 Navajo Way #60	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	4mo	$312,000	$203	70
2614 Mohawk Ave #116	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	14mo	$315,000	$205	66
110 Piute Dr #89	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,498 (-14%)	11mo	$315,000	$210	64
103 Comanche Way #70	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (-7%)	18mo	$439,000	$271	64
112 Navajo Way #48	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,484 (-15%)	6mo	$292,000	$197	64
117 Piute Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,580 (-9%)	24mo	$290,500	$184	62
131 Comanche Way #76	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-14%)	10mo	$215,000	$144	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-62,670
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-74,920
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91362

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,585/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,840

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2821 Los Robles Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	2155	$5,850	$2.71	43d	1	0.23mi
77 N Conejo School Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1220	$3,722	$3.05	3d	2	0.31mi
233 Almon Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.0	1206	$4,950	$4.10	43d	1	0.43mi
255 N Skyline Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$4,200	$2.15	2d	1	0.47mi
235 N Conejo School Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$3,310	$3.83	1d	1	0.49mi
3190 Los Robles Rd Unit B Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$4,300	$2.95	44d	1	0.52mi
3236 Royal Oaks Dr #4 Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1887	$4,600	$2.44	43d	1	0.55mi
3231 Royal Oaks Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1255	$3,550	$2.83	3d	1	0.55mi
117 Sunset Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1268	$3,400	$2.68	43d	1	0.59mi
3240 Foothill Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$3,750	$3.57	21d	1	0.61mi
375 Avenida de Royale Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	2002	$4,800	$2.40	23d	1	0.61mi
223 Erbes Rd Thousand Oaks, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,750	$3.14	11d	5	0.75mi
68 Maegan Pl #7 Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$3,145	$2.62	43d	1	0.77mi
86 Maegan Pl Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1075	$3,250	$3.02	43d	1	0.78mi
603 Hampshire Rd Westlake Village, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,868	$2.80	3d	10	0.80mi
1394 E Hillcrest Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$3,249	$3.56	1d	14	0.90mi
645 Hampshire Rd Westlake Village, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,272	$3.15	1d	20	0.97mi
1292 Paseo Rancho Serrano Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,950	$2.72	23d	1	1.05mi
2737 Sierra Dr Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$4,995	$3.42	43d	1	1.08mi
2828 Wasatch Ct Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$4,950	$3.39	1d	1	1.23mi
310 Rimrock Rd Westlake Village, CA	2.0	2.0	1600	$6,500	$4.06	2d	1	1.31mi
1081 Triunfo Canyon Rd Unit NA Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1724	$5,490	$3.18	10d	1	1.39mi
1080 Finrod Ct Westlake Village, CA	3.0	2.0	1826	$5,750	$3.15	43d	1	1.46mi
736 Masterson Dr Thousand Oaks, CA	3.0	2.5	2018	$4,300	$2.13	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $439,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    status Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate, spacious 2+2+bonus TRIPLEWIDE in a highly desirable retirement/55+ community, at the heart of Thousand Oaks, across from the Civic Arts Plaza and The Lakes. Beautifully remodeled throughout, generous kitchen boasts real wood cabinets, newer appliances. Wet bar in living room, close to large front porch, great for entertaining, relaxing, or to watch beautiful sunrises. Primary suite has an extra large bathroom. Elegantly landscaped with auto-sprinklers. Covered parking for 2 cars side-by-side! Separate laundry room. Amenities include the clubhouse, pool (heated Spring thru early-Nov.) jacuzzi (always heated), covered pickleball court, community events and much more! ''In Lieu Tax'' less than $75/yr (no property tax!) Rent controlled, senior overlay.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $445,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate, spacious 2+2+bonus TRIPLEWIDE in a highly desirable retirement/55+ community, at the heart of Thousand Oaks, across from the Civic Arts Plaza and The Lakes. Beautifully remodeled throughout, generous kitchen boasts real wood cabinets, newer appliances. Wet bar in living room, close to large front porch, great for entertaining, relaxing, or to watch beautiful sunrises. Primary suite has an extra large bathroom. Elegantly landscaped with auto-sprinklers. Covered parking for 2 cars side-by-side! Separate laundry room. Amenities include the clubhouse, pool (heated Spring thru early-Nov.) jacuzzi (always heated), covered pickleball court, community events and much more! ''In Lieu Tax'' less than $75/yr (no property tax!) Rent controlled, senior overlay.

18. 2026-04-24
    historical 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate, spacious 2+2+bonus TRIPLEWIDE in a highly desirable retirement/55+ community, at the heart of Thousand Oaks, across from the Civic Arts Plaza and The Lakes. Beautifully remodeled throughout, generous kitchen boasts real wood cabinets, newer appliances. Wet bar in living room, close to large front porch, great for entertaining, relaxing, or to watch beautiful sunrises. Primary suite has an extra large bathroom. Elegantly landscaped with auto-sprinklers. Covered parking for 2 cars side-by-side! Separate laundry room. Amenities include the clubhouse, pool (heated Spring thru early-Nov.) jacuzzi (always heated), covered pickleball court, community events and much more! ''In Lieu Tax'' less than $75/yr (no property tax!) Rent controlled, senior overlay.

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $450,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate, spacious 2+2+bonus TRIPLEWIDE in a highly desirable retirement/55+ community, at the heart of Thousand Oaks, across from the Civic Arts Plaza and The Lakes. Beautifully remodeled throughout, generous kitchen boasts real wood cabinets, newer appliances. Wet bar in living room, close to large front porch, great for entertaining, relaxing, or to watch beautiful sunrises. Primary suite has an extra large bathroom. Elegantly landscaped with auto-sprinklers. Covered parking for 2 cars side-by-side! Separate laundry room. Amenities include the clubhouse, pool (heated Spring thru early-Nov.) jacuzzi (always heated), covered pickleball court, community events and much more! ''In Lieu Tax'' less than $75/yr (no property tax!) Rent controlled, senior overlay.

20. 2021-04-19
    historical
21. 2009-10-16
    historical
22. 2009-04-17
    listed
23. 2009-04-15
    listed $161,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,585
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,079
• − Management: −$4,079
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$3,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$794
• After-tax cash flow: $4,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conejo Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609640
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $100,413
• Composite: 59.57/100
• National rank: #914
• State rank: #59 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thousand Oaks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #7364

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thousand Oaks, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 121,704
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,996
• Household income: $139,800
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1283.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -880.38%
• Current HPI: 289.461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — CSMAR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $445,000 CSMAR
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — CSMAR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $450,000 CSMAR
• 2021-04-19 Listing Removed — CSMAR
• 2009-10-16 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2009-04-17 Listed — CRMLS
• 2009-04-15 Listed $161,000 CSMAR