212 W Park Rd · Hayes, MI 48625

$48,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1950 0.71 ac lot $76/sqft · at area comps Est $61k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute little cabin located close to state land, perfect for trail riding and outdoor adventures. This one-bedroom, one-bath getaway sits on just shy of an acre, offering privacy and room to enjoy the outdoors. Laundry access is convenient, and with a little TLC, this cabin could truly shine as a wonderful retreat or weekend escape.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Trail riding
• Cabin

Tags

• CABIN
• STATE LAND
• TRAIL RIDING
• OUTDOOR ADVENTURES
• PRIVACY
• LAUNDRY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($815 rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $48k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.15%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,677
• List price: $48,500
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5192 Apache Trl	0.53mi	2/1.0	624 (-2%)	10mo	$83,200	$133	63
5443 Apache Trl	0.18mi	2/1.0	720 (+13%)	22mo	$13,500	$19	51
304 Burns Rd	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	726 (+14%)	1mo	$20,000	$28	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $14,579
• Equity at exit: $7,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $41,549
• Equity at exit: $4,193

Cash invested: $13,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $205/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $48,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,125
• Closing costs: $1,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,500 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,500 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 411-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,500 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,500 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,500 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,500 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,500 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,500 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $48,500 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,500 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,500 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,500 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,500 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $50,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Cute little cabin located close to state land, perfect for trail riding and outdoor adventures. This one-bedroom, one-bath getaway sits on just shy of an acre, offering privacy and room to enjoy the outdoors. Laundry access is convenient, and with a little TLC, this cabin could truly shine as a wonderful retreat or weekend escape.

18. 2021-03-23
    soldstatus $18,000
19. 2020-10-09
    listed $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 132.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,717
• − Property taxes: −$205
• − Insurance: −$242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$783
• − Management: −$783
• − Depreciation: −$1,411
• Taxable income: $3,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $3,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hayes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+132.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-09 Listed $21,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $205 · -67.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.