19222 N Pierson Rd · Peoria, AZ 85373

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1971 8,744 sqft lot $108/sqft · 15% below area Est $220k · 30% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home offers a great location and size of lot. backyard is enclosed with cyclone fencing and has a nice storge shed. Lot is 8744 sq ft. , home was remodeled 7 years ago but was not maintained well. The A. C, was replaced with a new unit 7 years ago and no issues with roof. Convenient to Arrowhead Mall and grocery stores. A great value for the handy man.

Key facts

• Cyclone fencing
• Storage shed
• New a.c unit

Tags

• ENCLOSED BACKYARD
• CYCLONE FENCING
• STORAGE SHED
• REMODELED HOME
• NEW A.C UNIT
• NO ISSUES WITH ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot has gravel/stone front and back
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $24 covering grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership; Fixer condition; City-maintained road access; Concrete and asphalt road surface
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Steel frame construction; Reflective coating roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Private street(s); Chain link fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Has heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Full bathroom in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #243 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 886 students, 30% FRL); Peoria High School (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #225 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,566 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.20%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -29.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19010 N Mark Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+1%)	11mo	$263,000	$181	75
19039 N Dinero Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,297 (-10%)	1mo	$205,000	$158	70
19067 N Mark Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	14mo	$265,000	$204	67
10808 W Sack Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$220,000	$153	66
10743 W Sack Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$264,900	$197	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $19,053
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $73,311
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85373

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11065 W Marco Polo Rd Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,795	$1.07	24d	1	0.43mi
19910 N 110th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,000	$2.13	43d	1	0.50mi
10763 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1776	$2,000	$1.13	43d	1	0.72mi
20341 N 105th Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1299	$3,000	$2.31	43d	1	0.79mi
10509 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1295	$4,000	$3.09	43d	1	0.84mi
10310 W Beardsley Rd Peoria, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1098	$1,925	$1.75	2d	7	0.89mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	43d	1	1.06mi
10359 W Ross Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	43d	1	1.11mi
19636 N Coyote Lakes Pkwy Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,195	$1.36	18d	1	1.13mi
11669 W Pine Mountain Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,100	$1.53	43d	1	1.13mi
20702 N Lake Pleasant Rd Peoria, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1051	$1,440	$1.37	1d	3	1.16mi
19702 N 98th Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.16mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,299	$1.57	43d	1	1.16mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Apt 1017 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,400	$1.22	14d	1	1.19mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,400	$1.41	12d	5	1.20mi
19609 N 98th Dr Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1653	$2,895	$1.75	43d	1	1.25mi
9803 W Kimberly Way Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1655	$1,800	$1.09	24d	1	1.26mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	1.34mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	1.34mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	1.36mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	1.36mi
9833 W Yukon Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	3d	1	1.37mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	1.41mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	1.41mi
9825 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	20d	1	1.43mi
9830 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,985	$1.55	1d	1	1.43mi
18942 N 96th Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1520	$1,945	$1.28	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $155,000 Active 361-char remark
2. 2026-04-14
   historical
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-03-24
   historical
5. 2026-03-24
   listed $149,999 Active
6. 2025-12-23
   historical
7. 2025-11-04
   price $169,000
8. 2025-10-28
   price $175,000
9. 2025-10-20
   price $195,000
10. 2025-10-15
    price $210,000
11. 2025-10-02
    price $220,000
12. 2025-09-25
    listed $245,000 Active
13. 2020-10-16
    soldstatus $169,999 Closed
14. 2020-10-16
    soldstatus $169,999
15. 2020-09-12
    listed $169,000 Active
16. 2020-02-19
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
17. 2020-02-19
    soldstatus $115,000
18. 2020-02-09
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
19. 2020-01-30
    listed $125,000 Active
20. 1992-09-11
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 1987-09-08
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $330 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 210.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $6,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $6,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,254
• Household income: $72,063
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.80%
• Current HPI: 261.3749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $149,999 ARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $220,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2020-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $169,999 Public Records
• 2020-10-16 Sold (MLS) $169,999 ARMLS
• 2020-09-12 Listed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2020-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-19 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2020-02-09 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-01-30 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 1992-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.