69205 Garver Lake Rd #17 · Ontwa, MI 49112

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 214 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition $47/sqft · 13% above area Est $66k · 13% over $475/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated, beautiful and spacious home located 15 minutes from Granger Indiana and Elkhart Indiana with many updates, including new Stainless-Steel appliances, new water heater, new bathroom and plumbing fixtures, and recent furnace upgrades. This spacious home has approximately 1,600 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms updated stainless steel appliances and new water heater. Open concept living and dining room offers updated floors and large windows with an abundance of natural light. The primary bedroom has an attached large bathroom with a full walk-in closet. This home is located in an award-winning Edwardsburg ''Blue Ribbon School System'' and is conveniently located near Eagle Lake and Garver Lake.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open concept living
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW BATHROOM FIXTURES
• RECENT FURNACE UPGRADES
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edwardsburg Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 540 in MI (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,109
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: 13.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69205 Garver Lake Rd #95	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (0%)	12mo	$74,900	$47	90
69205 Garver Lake Rd #58	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-14%)	1mo	$65,000	$47	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-685
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $15,022
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49112

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$475
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $201	+0% $175	+5% $149	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $117	+0% $175	+5% $233	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $194	base $175	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $475 · $5,700/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $74,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 193 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 192 DOM
19. 2025-11-19
    listed $74,900 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Newly renovated, beautiful and spacious home located 15 minutes from Granger Indiana and Elkhart Indiana with many updates, including new Stainless-Steel appliances, new water heater, new bathroom and plumbing fixtures, and recent furnace upgrades. This spacious home has approximately 1,600 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms updated stainless steel appliances and new water heater. Open concept living and dining room offers updated floors and large windows with an abundance of natural light. The primary bedroom has an attached large bathroom with a full walk-in closet. This home is located in an award-winning Edwardsburg ''Blue Ribbon School System'' and is conveniently located near Eagle Lake and Garver Lake.

20. 2025-11-19
    listed $74,900 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Newly renovated, beautiful and spacious home located 15 minutes from Granger Indiana and Elkhart Indiana with many updates, including new Stainless-Steel appliances, new water heater, new bathroom and plumbing fixtures, and recent furnace upgrades. This spacious home has approximately 1,600 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms updated stainless steel appliances and new water heater. Open concept living and dining room offers updated floors and large windows with an abundance of natural light. The primary bedroom has an attached large bathroom with a full walk-in closet. This home is located in an award-winning Edwardsburg ''Blue Ribbon School System'' and is conveniently located near Eagle Lake and Garver Lake.

21. 2025-11-19
    listed $74,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Newly renovated, beautiful and spacious home located 15 minutes from Granger Indiana and Elkhart Indiana with many updates, including new Stainless-Steel appliances, new water heater, new bathroom and plumbing fixtures, and recent furnace upgrades. This spacious home has approximately 1,600 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms updated stainless steel appliances and new water heater. Open concept living and dining room offers updated floors and large windows with an abundance of natural light. The primary bedroom has an attached large bathroom with a full walk-in closet. This home is located in an award-winning Edwardsburg ''Blue Ribbon School System'' and is conveniently located near Eagle Lake and Garver Lake.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − HOA: −$5,700
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $1,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$318
• After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly renovated home offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with updated appliances and systems, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both new flooring — improves aesthetics and durability
• Both new paint — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new flooring — improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both new paint — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edwardsburg Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2612990
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,372
• Composite: 50.29/100
• National rank: #1883
• State rank: #52 of 540 in MI

Livability — Ontwa

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,436

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,919 people
• By 2030: 48,320 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 44,230 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 39,852 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 31,440 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,914 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.5% · R 66.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+13.7 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.26%
• Current HPI: 183.898
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-19 Listed $74,900 SW Michigan MLS