3407 S 181st Pl · SeaTac, WA 98188

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 275 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $149/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLEWIDE FOR SALE at Bow Lake (55+) Be the first to live in this beautiful Brand New 2023 Karsten singlewide. 2 bedrooms / 1 bathroom at 648 sq. ft. The home has been updated with gorgeous block skirting. Also featured: A new carport (on the way), W/ D hookups, stainless appliances, and a new exterior storage shed. Bow Lake is a wonderful community with amazing amenities including a pool and secured access! Come make it yours!

Key facts

• New carport
• Stainless appliances
• Pool

Tags

• NEW CARPORT
• GORGEOUS BLOCK SKIRTING
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEW EXTERIOR STORAGE SHED
• SECURED ACCESS
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.1% in SeaTac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in WA, #2,417 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
• Highline School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 291 in WA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.91%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,265
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 53.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3219 S 181st Pl #127	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	670 (-0%)	2mo	$84,900	$127	88
3432 S 181st Pl #120	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	690 (+3%)	2mo	$50,500	$73	88
3215 S 181ST Pl	0.10mi	2/1.0	700 (+4%)	6mo	$60,000	$86	83
18306 35th Ave S #365	0.10mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	8mo	$99,900	$154	83
3407 S 180th Pl #61	0.05mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	10mo	$98,000	$151	83
3404 S 182nd Pl #205	0.04mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	5mo	$19,500	$27	82
18215 35th Pl S #371	0.08mi	2/1.0	728 (+8%)	11mo	$115,000	$158	73
3261 S 182nd Pl #227	0.05mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	24mo	$110,000	$170	72
18222 35th Ave S #361	0.08mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	22mo	$108,000	$167	72
3442 S 181st St #89	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	12mo	$65,000	$90	70
18137 31st Ave S	0.15mi	2/1.0	726 (+8%)	12mo	$30,000	$41	70
3220 S 183rd	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	24mo	$42,000	$58	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $27,291
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $65,895
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98188

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17840 32nd Ave S Seatac, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	757	$2,000	$2.64	12d	3	0.18mi
3508 S 180th St Seatac, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	793	$2,025	$2.55	12d	4	0.21mi
3425 S 176th St #128 Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	534	$1,500	$2.81	44d	1	0.30mi
3445 S 176th St #401 Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	608	$1,450	$2.38	44d	1	0.35mi
3445 S 176th St #401 Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	608	$1,400	$2.30	15d	1	0.35mi
3351 S 175th St Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	665	$1,850	$2.78	2d	4	0.40mi
3117 S 192nd St Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	676	$1,722	$2.55	2d	2	0.70mi
4410 S 173rd St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	723	$2,100	$2.90	44d	1	0.75mi
16700 31st Ave S Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,498	$2.00	44d	2	0.95mi
4807 S 172nd Pl Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	44d	1	0.96mi
19707 International Blvd Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	614	$1,799	$2.93	2d	20	1.09mi
19800 International Blvd Seatac, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	790	$2,210	$2.80	2d	13	1.10mi
19912 Military Rd S SeaTac, WA	1.0	1.0	656	$1,495	$2.28	44d	1	1.18mi
2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	703	$2,975	$4.23	16d	12	1.25mi
2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	703	$2,975	$4.23	2d	7	1.25mi
2650 S 200th St Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	566	$1,767	$3.12	44d	1	1.27mi
20036 30th Ave S Unit S8 SeaTac, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	24d	1	1.30mi
20036 30th Ave S Unit S9 SeaTac, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	11d	1	1.30mi
3445 S 160th St Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,800	$2.47	3d	5	1.36mi
15805 40th Pl S Tukwila, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,499	$2.14	2d	2	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 266 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 265 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 257 DOM
14. 2025-09-16
    listed $99,900 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    BRAND NEW SINGLEWIDE FOR SALE at Bow Lake (55+) Be the first to live in this beautiful Brand New 2023 Karsten singlewide. 2 bedrooms / 1 bathroom at 648 sq. ft. The home has been updated with gorgeous block skirting. Also featured: A new carport (on the way), W/ D hookups, stainless appliances, and a new exterior storage shed. Bow Lake is a wonderful community with amazing amenities including a pool and secured access! Come make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $8,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,943
• After-tax cash flow: $7,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new singlewide is move-in ready with modern updates and a great location at Bow Lake. The home's excellent condition and location make it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and patio furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and patio furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highline School District
• NCES district ID: 5303540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,697
• Composite: 39.12/100
• National rank: #8245
• State rank: #200 of 291 in WA

Livability — SeaTac

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #2417

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: SeaTac, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 62,839
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $76,438
• Rent vs Own: 58.5% rent · 41.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.79)
• Race & ethnicity: White 28% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Asian 15% Two or more races 10% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 41% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -595.95%
• Current HPI: 334.4203
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Listed $99,900 Zillow