Highgate Plan · San Marcos, TX 78666

$212,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

Key facts

• Chef-ready kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Adjoining bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• TRANQUIL OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• SPRAWLING GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $212,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,994.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $213k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-800/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,994
• List price: $212,999
• Delta: -12.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Navidad River Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	1mo	$198,999	$110	98
232 Navidad River Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	2mo	$215,990	$120	95
219 Navidad River Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$226,990	$123	90
208 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+3%)	1mo	$235,990	$128	90
136 Trinity River Holw	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$239,999	$127	88
116 Stumpy St	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$264,990	$144	88
109 Navidad River Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	2mo	$262,990	$143	88
235 Navidad River Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$232,990	$123	87
224 Trinity River Holw	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$229,990	$122	87
223 Navidad River Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$224,990	$132	85
214 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$223,990	$131	85
124 Stumpy St	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	1mo	$276,990	$138	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,838
• Equity at exit: $36,380

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,632
• Equity at exit: $21,096

Cash invested: $68,318 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1145
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,660/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $234,343

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $18	+0% $-67	+5% $-151	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-148	+0% $-67	+5% $14	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-5	base $-67	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,999
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,195	$1.02	3d	1	0.07mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.12mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	25d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $212,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,999 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $212,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $212,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $212,999 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,999 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $213,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

16. 2026-05-09
    price $216,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $218,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $229,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $218,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

20. 2026-04-20
    price $229,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

21. 2026-03-31
    price $234,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

22. 2026-02-16
    listed $234,990 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,667
• − Property taxes: −$3,660
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$4,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This spacious two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if outdated) — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if outdated) — Upgraded fixtures can improve the home's appeal and value.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if outdated) — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if outdated) — Upgraded fixtures can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $213,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $216,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $218,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $218,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $234,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $234,990 Zillow