11 Philcox Rd · Bloomingburg, NY 10940

$260,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1955 1.00 ac lot $324/sqft · 32% below area Est $382k · 32% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own two homes next door to each other in the Pine Bush School District. Single family home 2 bed, 1 bath, recently updated. Quiet road with only two homes, both originally owned by the same family, offering privacy and flexibility. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, train service, Resorts World Catskills, Kartrite Waterpark, and Bethel Woods Center for the Arts. Easy access to hiking, trails, fishing, and other outdoor recreation. Recently updated over 70k in renovations. Excellent opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or multi-generational living. This home can be purchase along with 11 Philcox Rd - MLS # 964656 21 Philcox Rd, for a discounted price if you buy both. More pics to come

Key facts

• Quiet road
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• PINE BUSH SCHOOL DISTRICT
• QUIET ROAD
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR TRAIN SERVICE
• NEAR RESORTS WORLD CATSKILLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($420/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bloomingburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,175 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, housing D+, schools F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $218,466 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,424
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -32.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,390
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $30,566
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,629/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $260,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own two homes next door to each other in the Pine Bush School District. Single family home 2 bed, 1 bath, recently updated. Quiet road with only two homes, both originally owned by the same family, offering privacy and flexibility. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, train service, Resorts World Catskills, Kartrite Waterpark, and Bethel Woods Center for the Arts. Easy access to hiking, trails, fishing, and other outdoor recreation. Recently updated over 70k in renovations. Excellent opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or multi-generational living. This home can be purchase along with 11 Philcox Rd - MLS # 964656 21 Philcox Rd, for a discounted price if you buy both. More pics to come

2. 2026-02-24
   listed $269,000 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own two homes next door to each other in the Pine Bush School District. Single family home 2 bed, 1 bath, recently updated. Quiet road with only two homes, both originally owned by the same family, offering privacy and flexibility. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, train service, Resorts World Catskills, Kartrite Waterpark, and Bethel Woods Center for the Arts. Easy access to hiking, trails, fishing, and other outdoor recreation. Recently updated over 70k in renovations. Excellent opportunity for owner-occupants, investors, or multi-generational living. This home can be purchase along with 11 Philcox Rd - MLS # 964656 21 Philcox Rd, for a discounted price if you buy both. More pics to come

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,629 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,512 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$74/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,629
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,035
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$968
• After-tax cash flow: $1,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bloomingburg

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1175
• US rank: #25817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,629 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.