8181 Folsom Blvd #172 · Sacramento, CA 95826

$67,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 849 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1970 $80/sqft · 14% below area Est $67k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Reduced to Sell Now! Affordable East Sacramento Cutie in Gated age55+ Park close to Everything. Vinyl Siding and Window Trim for EZ Maintenance, All Dual Pane Windows -1. Bright Open Living Room With Wood Wide Plank Floors, Large Eat-In Kitchen with Gas Stove. 2nd Bedroom w/ Closet, Rear Primary Bedroom has it's own Bath Access. Additional 20 x 8 Enclosed Patio Room-Large Rear Uncovered Private Patio retreat Surrounded by Greenery. Carport Parking for 2 cars. Park has Large Clubhouse w/ Activities. Huge Pool too.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Enclosed patio room
• Private patio

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PATIO ROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,826 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.74%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,000
• List price: $67,900
• Delta: 1.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8181 Folsom Blvd #88	0.07mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	11mo	$79,000	$99	78
8181 Folsom Blvd #106	0.09mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	11mo	$51,000	$64	77
8181 Folsom Blvd #38	0.08mi	2/1.0	784 (-8%)	24mo	$67,000	$85	64
8181 Folsom Blvd #67	0.22mi	2/1.0	784 (-8%)	23mo	$72,000	$92	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $46,902
• Equity at exit: $10,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $101,493
• Equity at exit: $5,871

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95826

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Bicentennial Cir Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,174	$2.32	3d	31	0.39mi
3099 Great Falls Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,275	$2.12	2d	1	0.40mi
3130 Occidental Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	717	$1,635	$2.28	2d	12	0.52mi
7928 La Riviera Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	704	$1,675	$2.38	4d	3	0.62mi
7901 La Riviera Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,962	$2.23	2d	8	0.87mi
2920 Ramona Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1000	$2,505	$2.50	8d	1	0.95mi
1255 University Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	890	$1,315	$1.48	24d	1	1.13mi
7008 Maita Cir Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	790	$1,975	$2.50	44d	1	1.23mi
2366 American River Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,175	$2.64	44d	1	1.37mi
4051 69th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,100	$2.47	44d	1	1.40mi
100 Hartnell Pl Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1072	$2,250	$2.10	8d	1	1.41mi
1500 67th St Sacramento, CA	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1035	$1,169	$1.13	2d	60	1.44mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $11,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,768
• After-tax cash flow: $9,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,165
• Household income: $82,127
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2433.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Subsaharan African 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.80%
• Current HPI: 325.179
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $131 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.