Cali - X40I Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$356,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Blue Heron Estates offers the perfect balance of space, comfort, and convenience. Set on generous half-acre homesites, this thoughtfully designed community features open-concept floorplans ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Three-car garages provide plenty of room for storage, hobbies, and all of life's extras, while the spacious lots give you the freedom to enjoy outdoor living without feeling crowded. Tucked away yet perfectly connected, Blue Heron Estates offers easy access to major highways and is just minutes from Brazos town center putting shopping, dining, and daily essentials right within reach. It's a place where quiet surroundings meet modern living, designed for tho

Key facts

• Three-car garages
• Half-acre homesites
• Spacious lots

Tags

• HALF-ACRE HOMESITES
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLANS
• THREE-CAR GARAGES
• SPACIOUS LOTS
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $356,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Address: Beasley, TX 77417
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1796

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Cali - X40I); Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $356,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,284.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $357k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $285,632 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,284
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6720 Kacal Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,838 (+2%)	9mo	$420,000	$229	74
1811 Beasley West End Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (+11%)	7mo	$378,500	$190	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $37,932
• Equity at exit: $212,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $157,302
• Equity at exit: $350,086

Cash invested: $115,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,169/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,598

Max offer price $326,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-444	+0% $-586	+5% $-728	+10% $-870
Rent	-10% $-811	-5% $-699	+0% $-586	+5% $-473	+10% $-360
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-481	base $-586	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,821
• Closing costs: $12,339
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 4th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,750	$2.21	0d	1	1.13mi
119 S 8th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,680	$1.00	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $356,990 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $356,990 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $356,990 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $356,990 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $356,990 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $356,990 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $356,990 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $356,990 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $356,990 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $356,990 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $356,990 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $356,990 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $356,990 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $356,990 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,038
• − Property taxes: −$6,169
• − Insurance: −$2,056
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,742
• − Management: −$2,742
• − Depreciation: −$11,965
• Taxable loss: −$14,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant exterior repairs and painting to improve its curb appeal and value. Consider a moderate renovation to address these issues.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and property value
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B