406 Barnett St · Eden, TX 76837

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 321 Days on market

Built 1950 $104/sqft · 28% above area Est $89k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 320 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,158 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eden CISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #891 of 1,141 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,204
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Drinkard St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	910 (+5%)	6mo	$165,000	$181	49
805 Jay St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	918 (+6%)	16mo	$43,000	$47	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $26,093
• Equity at exit: $50,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $74,195
• Equity at exit: $87,309

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76837

• Home prices YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,263/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $113	+0% $88	+5% $62	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $53	+0% $88	+5% $123	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $111	base $88	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,999 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,999 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,999 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,999 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 302 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 301 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 300 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,999 Active 299 DOM
18. 2026-01-28
    price $89,999
19. 2025-12-02
    price $99,000
20. 2025-08-12
    price $109,000
21. 2025-08-04
    listed $100,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 30.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,263
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $1,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eden CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818070
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,585
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #10819
• State rank: #891 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Eden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1158
• US rank: #20281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eden, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,946

Population outlook (Concho County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,538 people
• By 2030: 4,681 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 4,975 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 5,329 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 5,760 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 4,903 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 15% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Concho

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.1pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+69.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+51.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Current HPI: 88.8098
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $89,999 SAAR TX
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $99,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $109,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-04 Listed $100,900 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,263 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.