2308 Perdido Bay Ln · Sealy, TX 77474

$287,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $297k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bailey is a thoughtfully designed 1,882 sq. ft. single-story home, offering generous space and a warm, welcoming layout. The home opens through a charming, covered porch into a central foyer, leading to a spacious family room that connects to the dining area and kitchen. The kitchen is beautifully appointed with stainless steel appliances, premium countertops, and sleek cabinetry, along with a convenient pantry that enhances everyday functionality.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Central foyer
• Kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• CENTRAL FOYER
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2308 Perdido Bay Ln, Sealy TX 77474; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-06-05
• Financial info: List price $287,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 parking spaces (total)
• Home design: Spec inventory, Bailey plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1882

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1108 Sundown Prairie Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,817 (-4%)	9mo	$305,000	$168	74
1147 Buffalograss Trl	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,817 (-4%)	3mo	$289,000	$159	73
1259 Waterside Trce	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,831 (-3%)	6mo	$289,000	$158	69
1123 Sundown Prairie Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (+8%)	10mo	$233,000	$115	69
1105 Sundown Prairie Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-6%)	16mo	$276,990	$156	67
2007 Woodlark Way	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,831 (-3%)	15mo	$251,990	$138	66
1281 Thornbird Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-6%)	1mo	$295,000	$166	65
2227 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,831 (-3%)	16mo	$254,990	$139	61
2021 Woodlark Way	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-6%)	15mo	$249,990	$141	60
2205 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-6%)	12mo	$278,990	$157	56
1084 Westfork Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+2%)	13mo	$517,188	$271	52
214 White Wing Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (-2%)	15mo	$325,000	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,632
• Equity at exit: $42,940

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,412
• Equity at exit: $24,900

Cash invested: $80,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77474

• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $274,354

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,998
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Morning Dove Trl Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,400	$1.30	1d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,990 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,990 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,990 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,990 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $287,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 456-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $287,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$6,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home has a fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed, particularly to the exterior siding and interior walls. Painting and landscaping improvements can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration is visible on the exterior siding.
• Minor Interior walls — The paint quality is not clear, but it may need touch-ups.
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping may need improvement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Some discoloration is visible on the exterior siding.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · The paint quality is not clear, but it may need touch-ups.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping may need improvement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sealy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,842
• Composite: 34.42/100
• National rank: #5200
• State rank: #405 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sealy

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sealy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,846

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
• Current HPI: 195.9491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B