809 W Gibson St · Ozark, AR 72949

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1975 9,148 sqft lot $15/sqft · 83% below area ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY IS BEING LISTED SIGHT UNSEEN- NO SHOWINGS ALLOWED AND NO INTERIOR ACCESS will be granted due to structural and safety concerns.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.8% vs local median 3.1% in Ozark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#258 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ozark School District (town): math 41% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #80 of 238 in AR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 123.23%
• DSCR: 6.48
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,079
• List price: $24,900
• Delta: -82.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Alston	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+1%)	4mo	$135,000	$79	88
811 School St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+8%)	11mo	$82,000	$45	64
1701 W Gibson St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,705 (+1%)	15mo	$148,000	$87	61
122 E College St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	3mo	$195,000	$115	58
207 S 11th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+7%)	14mo	$165,000	$92	58
205 Cloos Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-5%)	1mo	$162,000	$101	57
306 W Nickell St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-13%)	7mo	$115,000	$79	51
607 School St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-14%)	20mo	$110,000	$76	48
1703 Walden Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-12%)	3mo	$210,000	$142	47
105 W Spring St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,447 (-14%)	16mo	$65,000	$45	41
1012 N 3rd St	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,518 (-10%)	10mo	$52,500	$35	36
1006 2nd St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	16mo	$185,000	$121	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $41,576
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.62×
• Total profit: $94,961
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72949

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $204

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $24,900 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $24,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $34,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $34,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $34,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $34,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    PROPERTY IS BEING LISTED SIGHT UNSEEN- NO SHOWINGS ALLOWED AND NO INTERIOR ACCESS will be granted due to structural and safety concerns.

14. 2026-04-10
    listed $39,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    PROPERTY IS BEING LISTED SIGHT UNSEEN- NO SHOWINGS ALLOWED AND NO INTERIOR ACCESS will be granted due to structural and safety concerns.

15. 2026-02-18
    status Active
16. 2026-01-26
    status Pending
17. 2025-07-30
    status Active
18. 2025-01-29
    listed $53,000 Active
19. 2013-03-06
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $8,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $6,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ozark School District
• NCES district ID: 0511010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $33,306
• Composite: 32.5/100
• National rank: #5703
• State rank: #80 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ozark

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #18601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ozark, AR
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,946 people
• By 2030: 16,403 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 15,303 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 14,243 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 12,136 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 10,443 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 17.7% · R 80.1% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.3pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+54.6 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.41%
• Current HPI: 180.3194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-41.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $34,900 WRVBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $39,900 WRVBOR
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — WRVBOR
• 2026-01-26 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2025-07-30 Relisted — WRVBOR
• 2025-01-29 Listed $53,000 WRVBOR
• 2013-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.